Deep Dive Video Update for March 10, 2025

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Summary of the "Deep Dive Video Update" prepared for Monday, March 10, 2025:
This weekly video analyzes charts not frequently used in daily videos, with a shorter list this week due to market events. Some charts overlap with daily videos, while others are unique to this update.
Key points from the charts:
VIX (Volatility Index): Currently in a lower range overall, despite being above 20 on daily charts. The correlation with the S&P 500 remains low, offering limited additional insight unless it exceeds a higher threshold.
VVIX (Volatility of VIX): Rising as stocks face pressure, but still range-bound over the past few years, indicating no strong directional conviction.
SKEW Index: A variation of VIX using out-of-the-money options. Recently dropped from extreme levels as the market declined, suggesting no imminent big moves.
Stock vs. Bond Volatility: The VIX/MOVE Index ratio is increasing, reflecting more market volatility as the S&P weakens.
Market Performance: The S&P is up 65.12% from its October 2022 low and 40% from its October 2023 low, despite recent pullbacks.
Technical Alerts (StockCharts.com): Predominantly red, indicating a negative week for the market.
Index Rankings: Rated 0-100 technically:
Dow (56.3, 1st)
S&P 500 (40.7, 2nd)
NASDAQ 100 (33.5, 3rd)
NASDAQ (25.3, 4th)
Mid-Caps (14.2, 5th)
Small-Caps (6.5, 6th)
The market shows a shift from growth to value stocks amid political and geopolitical uncertainty since December 2024.
Short-Term Rainbow (10-50 Period Moving Averages): S&P dropped below this rainbow, signaling a short-term downtrend.
Advance-Decline Ratio: Hovering near zero, with Friday’s slight uptick suggesting a shift from growth to value stocks.
Intermediate-Term Rainbow (50-100 Period Moving Averages): Lines are bunching up, indicating vulnerability if the decline persists.
Connors RSI & CMB Composite: No extreme readings currently; CMB has improved slightly but isn’t highlighted daily.
Bollinger Bands (Percent B): Negative but not extreme, reflecting a moderate downward move.
S&P 100 vs. S&P 500: S&P 100 is starting to underperform, especially in the short and intermediate term.
Long-Term Rainbow (50-250 Periods): S&P is dipping into this rainbow; prolonged weakness could turn the long-term trend negative.
Special K Oscillator: Declining but still above the critical threshold, not yet signaling a long-term negative shift.
Highs/Lows 10-Day Average: Above 50, suggesting money is shifting within the S&P rather than exiting.
European Markets: The German DAX has been outperforming the S&P 500, showing stronger European stock resilience.
Support/Resistance Rainbow: The S&P is well below this short-term indicator, with lines turning downward.
VXN (NASDAQ 100 Volatility): Rising volatility, but analysis focuses primarily on VIX for S&P 500.
Dow vs. Transports: Dow outperforms transports, which are moving sideways.
Financial Sector: Bank ETF testing its 200-day moving average; regional banks are underperforming the broader financial sector, raising mild concern.
Rate of Change (250 Periods): Long-term trend remains positive but under pressure as it tests the 200-day moving average.
Bonds & Inflation:
Cash-to-3-7 year bond ratio is declining, suggesting stabilizing inflation and interest rate fears.
TIPS (inflation-protected securities) vs. bonds show reduced inflation concerns recently.
Long-Term Bonds vs. S&P 500/QQQs: Correlations are neutral to weakening, offering little insight.
US 10-Year Yield vs. German Yield & Dollar Index: High correlation, but no significant misalignment currently.
Two-Year Treasury Yield: Choppy with no strong trend.
Eurozone ETF vs. Bonds: Outperforming, reflecting European strength.
S&P 500, Mid Caps, Small Caps Above 50-Day Moving Average: All below 50, indicating intermediate-term negativity, with no extreme oscillator readings yet.
The takeaway: The market is in a short-term downtrend, shifting from growth to value amid uncertainty, with intermediate-term vulnerability increasing. Long-term trends remain positive but are under pressure. European markets are outperforming the U.S., and volatility is rising, though not at extreme levels.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1SmwGWZDguON9StHinp99ZkJ7j-jQDdow/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!