S&P 500 Deep Dive Video Update for Monday March 17, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com/
Summary of the Deep Dive Update for Monday, March 17, 2025:
In this weekly video, we explore financial charts in greater depth than in the daily videos, aiming to uncover subtle clues about market trends. There are charts that are unique and exclusive to this update, including some new ones not previously shown.
Key points from the charts include:
VIX (Volatility Index): The VIX is currently above 20 but trending downward after peaking higher. It remains in a lower long-term range, suggesting no immediate shift to a highly negative environment unless it crosses above a key threshold (red line). Momentum in the VIX has also decreased, sitting near a midpoint, and its correlation with the S&P 500 is low, indicating they’re moving in tandem without significant divergence.
The VVIX and SKU Index: The VVIX (volatility of the VIX) has risen alongside the VIX but remains range-bound, lacking strong conviction. The SKU Index, a VIX variant, has dropped from a level signaling a big expected move, showing no extreme readings currently.
Stocks vs. Bonds Volatility: The VIX-to-MOVE Index ratio shows stock volatility outpacing bond volatility, with bonds generally rising in price (yields falling), though this shifted slightly last week.
Large Cap Growth and Ratios: Large cap growth is underperforming, sitting below its 200-day moving average, raising concerns as growth typically outperforms value in positive environments. The Russell 1000 (large caps) to Russell 2000 (small caps) ratio is rising, indicating small caps are weaker despite large caps also taking hits.
Market Performance: From the October 2022 and 2023 lows, the market is up 61.36% and 37.41%, respectively. Technical alerts show red signals on down days, with a slight improvement on Friday. Gold hit an all-time high above $3,000.
Indexes and Trends: Six tracked indexes (Dow, S&P 500, QQQs, NASDAQ Composite, Mid-Caps, Small Caps) are performing poorly, with scores ranging from 33.6 (Dow) to 7.9 (small caps). Short-term and intermediate-term trends (via rainbow charts and momentum oscillators such as the Connors RSI) are negative, with the market below key moving averages.
Volume and Sentiment: Friday’s bounce had below-average volume (a negative divergence), but 90% was buying volume, suggesting potential early bullishness amid widespread pessimism—a possible bottoming signal.
Long-Term Trend and Hedging: The market is below the 200-day moving average, turning one long-term trend criterion negative.
Bonds and Yields: Cash is outperforming short-to-mid-term bonds, but fear of inflation/interest rates is easing per ratios such as TIPS and CRB Index trends. The 10-year minus 3-month yield curve is inverted, hinting at recession risk if employment weakens, though it’s held steady so far.
Global Perspective: German stocks (DAX) are outperforming U.S. stocks, with rising German rates narrowing the U.S.-German 10-year yield gap, influenced by EU dynamics.
Additional Indicators: Charts such as the Bollinger Bands, Ichimoku Cloud, and point-and-figure patterns confirm a downtrend, with potential support/resistance levels ahead. Small caps and regional banks are notably weak, while the financial sector clings to an uptrend.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10dYTH3jgv3hwLoBIseC9ok7W0No5YBb6/view?usp=sharing
My Exclusive Free Workshop: The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com
Free Stock Market Course: https://youtu.be/Bl8XZh1t3DI
Blog: https://spxinvestingblog.com
Facebook Private Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/667271964721864
DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!