S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday March 18, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Monday, March 17th, 2025, with a look ahead to Tuesday, March 18th:
The SPX saw a positive day on Monday, following a strong bounce on Friday, with both days registering 90% up volume. However, the bounces occurred on below-average volume, raising concerns about a technical negative divergence, as volume was above average during the prior decline. The market closed up 0.64%, above the R1 resistance level at 5658, after briefly hitting 5700 and encountering resistance at R2 (5697). Despite the gains, the short and intermediate-term outlook remains negative, with the S&P still below its 200-day moving average, while the long-term trend is mixed.
Key observations:
Growth continues to underperform value, a concern for market leadership, with no significant improvement in growth-to-value ratios.
Overhead resistance levels, including the 200-day moving average, will be critical to watch if the upward movement persists.
The VIX dropped to 20.51, indicating easing volatility, though it remains above 20. The parabolic SAR turned positive, and the short-term shows signs of improvement, but many technical indicators (e.g., stochastics, TTM squeeze) remain extreme negative.
Economic reports were weaker than expected: Retail Sales rose 0.2% (vs. 0.7% expected), and the Empire Manufacturing Survey showed contraction at -20. However, the market reacted positively to a more orderly tariff rollout in April signaled by the new U.S. Trade Representative.
Geopolitical tensions rose with oil prices ticking up to the mid-to-upper 60s after President Trump’s warning to Iran regarding Houthi attacks. Interest rates were unchanged at 4.31% for the 10-year yield, and the dollar weakened slightly. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at its Wednesday meeting, with markets focused on the accompanying statement.
For Tuesday, the outlook remains cautious:
The Short and intermediate-term trends are negative, with the market still below key moving averages.
Long-term support holds for now, but the bounce may be a "dead cat bounce" to relieve oversold conditions rather than a sustained recovery.
Upcoming data includes housing starts, building permits, and industrial production, though no major market-moving reports are expected.
Seasonality favors a positive day, with a 65% chance of gains for the week based on historical options expiration trends.
Overall, while some technical and sentiment indicators show improvement, the market’s direction remains uncertain, with resistance levels and growth underperformance as key factors to monitor.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1XF-wiNxpJ4zoMGvLmKWgixUeZP4AXgcH/view?usp=sharing
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!