S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday March 19, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Tuesday, March 18, 2025, and the outlook for Wednesday, March 19, 2025:
Tuesday Market Recap:
The market experienced a pullback with a lower open and an immediate decline below the S1 support level at 5636, finding support at S2 around 5598 (near the 5600 level).
It then traded sideways for the rest of the session, closing -1.07% on below-average volume, indicating a lack of strong buying or selling pressure after the Open.
The market remains tentative, possibly due to the upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Indicators show a mix of improvement and persistent negativity:
Short and intermediate-term trends remain negative.
Long-term outlook is mixed, with the market below the 200-day simple moving average.
Growth stocks (e.g., mega caps) underperformed, while value stocks saw less declines, suggesting a defensive market posture.
Key levels: The VIX rose to 21.7, signaling heightened fear (negative returns historically above 20). Sentiment remains low at 20 (down from 22).
Economic and Geopolitical Context:
Interest rates dipped (10-year yield at 4.28% from 4.31%), and the dollar weakened. The yield curve (10-year to 3-month) is flat.
Economic reports: Housing starts (1.501M vs. 1.385M expected) and industrial production (up 0.7% vs. 0.2% expected) beat forecasts, while building permits and import/export prices showed mixed results.
Geopolitical factors (e.g., U.S. actions in Yemen, Israel, Trump-Putin call on peace talks) contributed to market jitters but didn’t significantly move the markets.

Technical Analysis:
Indicators such as the ADX, Stochastics, and Rate of Change remain negative, though some (e.g., Slope Oscillator) show slight improvement.
A non-confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal persists (confirmation deadline: March 31).
The market is below key moving averages (20, 50, 200-day), with overhead resistance proving challenging.
Wednesday Outlook:
The Fed’s announcement at 2 p.m. Eastern is the focal point, though no rate change is expected (98% probability). Commentary will be key.
Other factors: MBA Mortgage Applications Index, geopolitical developments (e.g., U.S.-Russia talks, Middle East tensions).
Seasonality is positive for March 19, and options expiration week historically favors gains, though post-election year patterns suggest potential weakness later in March.
Trend remains negative short- and intermediate-term, mixed but positive long-term, with the market slightly oversold.
Conclusion:
The market is in a cautious, defensive state, chopping around below the 200-day moving average. Tuesday’s lack of conviction and Wednesday’s Fed meeting keep uncertainty high, with technical damage still unrepaired and growth underperforming value. Positive economic data offers some support, but geopolitical risks and tariff concerns loom large.
PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1gSTu5cja1RuijYBOOj6lMTXMD8Ldppio/view?usp=sharing
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