Watch to Watch Update for Monday March 24, 3035

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The What to Watch Update, prepared for Monday, March 24, 2025, provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial charts and indicators observed over the past week. The charts that provide insights are separated into three main sections: positive, negative, and areas to watch, focusing on their implications for the S&P 500.
Positive Side
Despite a generally cautious outlook, some indicators show positive developments:
-Intraday Chart: The S&P 500 closed up about 0.5% for the week, despite mixed daily performances on Friday and throughout the week. This includes a significant positive reaction to the Fed's announcement on Wednesday (no rate changes, two potential cuts later in the year signaled).
Advance-Decline Line: Both price and volume-based lines remain above their moving averages, indicating internal market strength, though rotation from growth to value persists as a concern.
New Highs-Lows: An improving trend with more new highs than lows, suggesting a potential turnaround.
Smart Money Indicators: Accumulation Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, and Chaikin Oscillator turned positive for the first time in a while, though some of this may be due to Friday’s quadruple witching (options expiration).
Momentum Indicators: The short-term oscillators (e.g., Coppock Curve, slope oscillator) are turning positive, and long-term support for the S&P 500 is holding above a key quarterly pivot point.
Sector Ratios: Staples underperforming tech and the S&P suggest potential strength in growth-oriented sectors if this trend continues.
Interest Rates: Falling rates could support stocks, though the market is currently more focused on tariffs and economic growth concerns.
Negative Side
The negative indicators outweigh the positives, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty:
Growth vs. Value: Growth continues to underperform value across intraday and longer-term charts, a persistent drag on the S&P 500.
Small and Mid-Caps: Small caps are below the 200-day moving average and generating a death cross, while mid-caps show slight improvement but remain weak.
Short-Term Trend: The ADX indicates a weakening upward trend, still negative overall, with longer-term trends also trending downward. However, the weekly chart shows a strengthening negative trend.
Volume: Dropping off despite price movements, signaling confusion or frustration among participants.
Fear Indicators: The VIX remains elevated (though slightly improved to close below 20), and investor sentiment surveys show prolonged pessimism without a capitulation bottom.
Technical Indicators: The Weekly Parabolic SAR is negative, and the S&P is below multiple moving averages, facing overhead resistance.
Sector Weakness: Semiconductors and home construction are notably negative, with the latter tied to rising interest rate concerns from late 2024.
Hindenburg Omen: A potential warning signal appeared on March 3rd, but it requires confirmation by March 31st to be significant.
Areas to Watch
These factors could influence the market’s direction:
Junk vs. Government Bonds: Increasing fear in the bond market as this ratio declines, an inverted proxy for the VIX.
Jobless Claims: Stable so far, but a key recession indicator to monitor.
Mass Index: A potential reversal signal is pending confirmation.
Stocks vs. Bonds: Bonds underperforming stocks is positive, but recent upticks warrant attention.
Inflation Signals: Charts (e.g., TIPS, cash vs. bonds) suggest waning inflation concerns despite the public narrative.
Yield Curves: The 10-year to 2-year is not inverted, but the 10-year to 3-month has turned inverted, signaling potential economic trouble.
Global Markets: The German DAX is outperforming U.S. stocks, reducing the usual correlation with Europe.
Oil and Dollar: Oil prices are down (non-inflationary), and a weakening dollar (below the 200-day moving average) supports stocks but may shift with upcoming tariff deadlines (April 2nd).
Conclusion
The SPX is at a crossroads: short-term positives are emerging, but broader negative trends and uncertainties (e.g., tariffs, growth vs. value rotation) dominate. Watching to see if the current bounce signals a broader recovery or a countertrend move within a larger downtrend.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TAJBfOAUyVe3sXAa6Q9ndcBDzqjXLO7h/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!