S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday March 25, 2025

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Summary of the S&P 500 Update covering Monday, March 24, 2025, and the outlook for Tuesday, March 25, 2025:
The market experienced a positive bounce on Monday, with the S&P opening above 5,700 and climbing above 5750, closing at the intraday high with a 1.76% gain. This was driven by optimism over the Trump administration's potential adoption of a more targeted approach to tariffs set to begin on April 2nd, which the market favored over blanket tariffs. However, the upward move occurred on below-average volume, raising some concerns about the strength of the rally.
Short-term and long-term trends turned positive as the Dow and S&P regained their 200-day simple moving averages, though the intermediate-term trend remains negative based on moving averages. Mega-cap stocks, which had been beaten down recently, saw a solid recovery, and the VIX dropped to 17.48, marking its fourth consecutive day below 20. Internal improvements were noted, but more follow-through is needed to confirm the rally’s sustainability.
Interest rates and the dollar rose, with the 10-year yield closing at 4.33% (up from 4.25% on Friday), yet this did not significantly pressure stocks. Sentiment improved from extreme negative to just negative, with a reading of 28 (up from 23). Economic reports showed mixed results: manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8 (indicating contraction), while services PMI rose to 54.3 (expansion).
Technical indicators showed progress: the S&P moved above the short- and long-term moving averages, The Smart Money Indicators (Accumulation/Distribution, Chaiken Money Flow & Oscillator) turned positive, and momentum oscillators are showing improvement. However, volume below average, a still-negative intermediate trend suggest caution. There is a non-confirmed Hindenburg Omen from March 3rd, which needs to be confirmed by March 31.
For Tuesday, the outlook is cautiously positive in the short term, with the market above the 200-day moving average and showing signs of improvement. Key data releases—FHFA and Case-Shiller home price indices, consumer confidence, and new home sales—could influence direction. Geopolitical and tariff-related developments remain wildcards. Seasonality favors gains on March 25th, though the post-options expiration week historically leans negative. Overall, while the short- and long-term trends are positive, the intermediate term is still negative but improving, and more confirmation is needed for a sustained uptrend.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!