Pandemic Panic: Are Outbreaks Really on the Rise?

Policy experts warn that governments and the public are being misled about the rise in pandemics—diverting resources into preparedness plans while neglecting more pressing global health issues.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) claims that pandemics—once considered rare—are now expected every 20 to 40 years. This alarming prediction has fuelled billions in funding for pandemic preparedness, with the WHO leading the charge.

But what if this narrative is built on flawed assumptions?

Senior policy experts Professor Garrett Brown and Dr David Bell from the University of Leeds challenge these claims.

Their research - Reevaluating the Pandemic Preparedness and Response Agenda (REPPARE) - reveals that the WHO’s warnings about rising pandemic frequency are misleading.
https://essl.leeds.ac.uk/directories0/dir-record/research-projects/1260/re-evaluating-the-pandemic-preparedness-and-response-agenda-reppare

According to Brown and Bell, the apparent surge in outbreaks is largely a result of improved diagnostic tools—meaning we are detecting more diseases, not necessarily experiencing more of them.

At the same time, infectious disease mortality has been steadily declining for decades, thanks to advancements in hygiene, medical care, and nutrition.

A major concern is the WHO’s focus on speculative threats like “Disease X”—a hypothetical pathogen that could, in theory, cause a future pandemic. Since known infectious threats have not demonstrated the catastrophic impact predicted, the WHO has introduced this theoretical concept to justify its continued push for pandemic preparedness.

Brown and Bell argue that these forecasts rely more on speculation than solid evidence, and foster unnecessary fear.

More concerning is how this fixation on hypothetical pandemics diverts attention and funding from real, ongoing health crises like tuberculosis and malaria.

Tuberculosis alone kills over 1.3 million people annually, while malaria claims more than 600,000 lives—mostly children. These diseases are both preventable and treatable, yet their funding is shrinking as global resources shift towards pandemic preparedness based on uncertain projections.

The financial rationale is equally questionable. Brown and Bell highlight that G20 reports on pandemic risk rely on unreliable data and exaggerated economic models. These reports further distort the perceived threat by factoring in extraordinary costs, such as government stimulus packages, making pandemics seem disproportionately catastrophic compared to diseases like tuberculosis and malaria.

Ultimately, Brown and Bell argue that prioritising hypothetical pandemics over real, ongoing health crises, is not only misguided—it is dangerous.

If even a fraction of the billions spent on speculative outbreaks was redirected towards combatting known diseases, millions of lives could be saved.

The real danger is not the next big pandemic—it is the neglect of the diseases we already know how to prevent and treat.

From https://blog.maryannedemasi.com/p/pandemic-panic-are-outbreaks-really