The Wire - March 28, 2025 - Priority

//The Wire//2300Z March 28, 2025//
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//BLUF: MAJOR EARTHQUAKES STRIKE BURMA AND THAILAND, THOUSANDS OF CASUALTIES ESTIMATED. DIPLOMATIC ACTIONS CONTINUE IN UKRAINE.//

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-International Events-

Southeast Asia: A very large earthquake (and many aftershocks) struck the region this morning, primarily within the nations of Myanmar (Burma) and Thailand. The epicenter of the Burmese earthquake was located almost exactly under the city of Mandalay, Burma's second largest city. Early estimates indicate the earthquake's magnitude was 7.7, larger than usual for the region. In Thailand, several aftershocks were felt and have caused damage through much of the northwest. A state of emergency remains in effect throughout most of Burma, and parts of Thailand that have been hardest hit. Many skyscrapers and high-rise buildings have collapsed in Bangkok, about 600 miles from the epicenter.

AC: This earthquake is a big deal, with most authorities estimating thousands, if not tens of thousands of casualties spread throughout the region. Right now, numbers are impossible to verify as most communications networks throughout Burma and Thailand (which barely functioned before the earthquake) are simply overwhelmed. Additionally, since Burma has been living under a state of military coup for several years, communications blackouts have been the norm to prevent access to the internet by locals. As such these censorship efforts probably will have a negative impact on determining the scale of the crisis in Burma.

Eastern Europe: The potential for peace in Ukraine remains on the table as diplomatic efforts remain constant. Overnight, President Putin gave a very frank and direct talk regarding his concerns for the war coming to a close. One of his chief concerns is the legitimacy of peace; in short, Putin stated that he's not sure if a peace agreement with Zelenskyy would be legally binding, because he is not the elected leader of Ukraine (referencing the fact that elections have been suspended in Ukraine, and Zelenskyy's term of office expired some time ago).

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Analyst Comments: Though many may scoff at listening to anything Putin says, his remarks last night provide some much needed insight into his perspective during negotiations. For instance, from Putin's perspective, regime change is a non-starter. From where Putin sits, Zelenskyy must go even if that means ousting him and creating an interim transitional government while elections take place. Considering his strangely direct remarks, he probably would be amenable to a ceasefire while Ukrainian elections take place, but that's sheer speculation at best.

Rightly or wrongly, and like it or not, Zelenskyy remaining in office is one of the biggest barriers to peace and Russia has made it clear that they will continue fighting as long as he is in power. Zelenskyy himself did make it illegal for any ceasefire or peace talks to even happen with Putin, that is an undeniable fact that is complicating things quite a bit. Of course, on the other side of the issue, Russia wants to come out of this war in the best position possible, and a transitional government where everyone is vying for power would be politically advantageous to Russia.

Fundamentally, opinions will vary on what is happening as long as those interpreting the diplomatic efforts adopt certain opinions. For instance, if a person thinks that Putin is hellbent on taking the entire continent of Europe, one analytical perspective will be adopted. If a person thinks that Putin just wants to make a minor land grab and isn't interested in land outside of Ukraine, another analytical perspective will be used. This is one of the major reasons for analytical discrepancy throughout the conflict, and is why the terms of a peace agreement might be confusing to many people who had believed one set of beliefs about the war for so long that at war's end, the reality of the situation might be hard to understand.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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