S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday Match 31, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Friday, March 28, 2025, and the outlook for Monday, March 31, 2025:
The SPX experienced a significant downturn on Friday, closing down 1.97% on below-average volume. This was attributed to escalating inflation concerns and deteriorating consumer confidence, with the core PCE inflation rate rounding up to 2.6%, unsettling the market. Uncertainty surrounding upcoming tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd added to the negative sentiment, as investors await potential last-minute negotiations.
Technically, the market broke below key support levels, falling from S1 at 5665 to S3 at 5576, where it closed. It dropped below the 20-period moving average, with the intermediate-term trend remaining negative and the long-term trend mixed and below the 200-day simple moving average. The Long-Term support level is hanging by a slim margin (closing at 5581 vs. a pivot point of 5575). The VIX rose to 21.65, indicating increased volatility, and the parabolic SAR turned negative, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Consumer sentiment hit a low of 57, revised down from 57.9, reflecting widespread unease. Personal income rose more than expected at 0.8%, but spending increased less than anticipated at 0.4%, suggesting caution. Growth stocks, particularly in tech and semiconductors, underperformed, while defensive sectors such as utilities were the only ones to gain. The market is nearing a 10% correction from its February high, sitting at 9.17% down.
For Monday, the short- and intermediate-term trends remain negative, with the long-term trend mixed but fragile. Key economic data, including the Chicago PMI, and potential geopolitical developments, especially regarding tariffs, will be critical. The market's direction hinges on whether it can hold long-term support or if further declines will confirm a broader correction. Seasonality offers no clear edge, and the Smart Money Indicators are mostly negative, though some long-term oscillators remain positive but weakening.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1biiUkNzrJzocLQltTaoxSnTzMuadFBA8/view?usp=sharing

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