Weekly Update for March 31-April 4, 2025

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Summary of the weekly S&P 500 update for the week of March 24th-28th, 2025, and the outlook for March 31st-April 4th:
Market Performance (March 24th-28th):
The market declined 1.53% for the week with above-average volume, closing below key moving averages.
Major indexes saw losses: Dow (-1%), NASDAQ (-2.6%), S&P 500 (-1.5%), small caps (-1.6%).
Friday's session was particularly negative, erasing earlier weekly gains after disappointing reports.
Key Factors Impacting the Market:
1. Trade Policy Uncertainty: New 25% tariffs on imported vehicles start April 3rd, with reciprocal tariffs announced, raising trade war fears.
2. Declining Consumer Confidence: Fourth consecutive decline, alongside falling consumer sentiment.
3. Inflation Concerns: Perception of rising inflation persists, though market signals are mixed.
4. Tech Sector Weakness: Tech stocks, a market backbone, declined significantly, with a rotation from growth to value stocks ongoing.
Technical Analysis:
The S&P 500 is below the 200-day moving average again, signaling long-term support concerns.
Volume is below average on the daily charts, suggesting limited "Smart Money" participation.
Trend indicators (e.g., ADX, green/red lines) remain negative, with volatility increasing (VIX above 20).
Sector Performance:
Energy and financials showed relative strength; tech and discretionary sectors weakened.
Defensive sectors (e.g., staples, energy) outperformed growth areas.
Economic Indicators:
Employment situation report due next Friday (April 4th) will update projections.
Atlanta Fed GDP now estimates negative growth (-1.5% to -1.75%), while New York Fed remains positive (+2.86%).
PCE inflation data on Friday was rounded up, spooking markets despite meeting headline expectations.

Outlook (March 31st-April 4th):
Tariffs kicking in on April 2nd-3rd may drive volatility, depending on last-minute negotiations.
Uncertainty persists due to trade policies, inflation fears, and shifting sentiment.
Positive signs (e.g., copper prices, gold surge) conflict with broader market weakness, suggesting mixed signals.
Fed rate decision on May 7th is expected to hold steady (81.5% probability), with a potential June cut (64.9%) if economic weakness emerges.
Despite some positive long-term projections (e.g., 21% S&P 500 increase in a year per FactSet), near-term concerns dominate due to Friday’s sell-off and ongoing uncertainties.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1eHP-H5SrJXF2k4fneY4wowFBycxXYagw/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!