Part 1 Disaster About to Strike the San Andreas

The San Andreas Fault Is on The Brink of a Devastating Earthquake

The San Andreas Fault in the Carrizo Plain of California (Credit: Wikipedia)

In earthquake prediction, geologists work in probability distributions rather than absolute terms. Consensus is growing, however, of the likelihood of a large and devastating earthquake to strike California. Why are scientists beginning to worry? The San Andreas Fault hasn't produced a big earthquake in that region of the fault since the M7.9 earthquake hit California in 1857, 159 years ago.

The theory behind why we expect the next significant earthquake to be a big one becomes apparent in a few back of the envelope calculations. The average rate of plate movement along the San Andreas Fault has remained fairly consistent at approximately 2 inches per year for the last several million years. Given the aforementioned 159-year gap in a major earthquake along part of the San Andreas Fault, that would mean average plate movement has accumulated 26 feet of movement since then.

The accumulated strain built up from 159 years and 26 feet of plate movement provides the ammunition needed for a major earthquake on the order of M8.0. At some point the rock holding that strain will break when the strain overcomes the tensile strength of the surrounding rock. At this point, the two plates will quickly snap to a state of equilibrium or close to it, thrusting the plates from their current position.

Why Can't We Predict Earthquakes?

As you likely know, the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (M7.8) was one of the most powerful in the recent century and led to mass destruction of the San Francisco bay area from earthquake related damages as well as fire. However, in today's modern society where you can login online and check the news at any hour we have a distinct advantage over previous generations. Unfortunately, there are no reliable ways to predict an imminent earthquake, much like we do for practically every other natural disaster.

We can measure increased toxic gasses and increased heat flow to predict volcanic eruptions, measure wind and weather patterns via satellites, and measure tsunami potential from earthquakes. Unfortunately, there are no telltale signs of an imminent earthquake. There are early warning messaging apps that will notify you of any impending danger.  The only certainty is that the plates continue to move whether there is an earthquake or not to relieve the stress. The longer the time between earthquakes, generally leads to more powerful and devastating earthquake.

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