Part 3 Disaster New Madrid Fault Is About to Strike Again

Facts about the New Madrid Seismic Zone

While not as well known for earthquakes as California or Alaska, the New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ), located in southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, western Tennessee, western Kentucky and southern Illinois, is the most active seismic area in the United States, east of the Rocky Mountains. The area includes major cities such as Memphis, Tennessee, St. Louis, Missouri, Little Rock, Arkansas and Evansville, Indiana. Every year hundreds of small earthquakes occur in the NMSZ, however, most are too small to be felt by humans and can only be detected by sensitive instruments.

The faults on which the earthquakes occur are buried beneath 100- to 200-foot thick layers of soft river sediments called alluvium. Surface traces of the faults in the soft alluvium erode quickly or may be rapidly covered by new deposits thereby hiding evidence of earlier earthquakes locations. In places like California, where rocks are at or near the ground surface, faults are much easier to study because they can be readily measured and analyzed. Since the faults in the NMSZ are not expressed at the surface, they are not as well understood and are more difficult to study.

The NMSZ is famous for a series of three major earthquakes (believed to have been magnitude 7.0 or larger) which occurred in the two month period between Dec. 16, 1811, and Feb. 7, 1812. In addition, hundreds of moderate earthquakes (magnitude 5.0-6.5) and thousands of smaller (magnitude 5.0- 4.0) earthquakes occurred in between the larger earthquakes and continued shaking the area for several months. These earthquakes were felt and recorded in personal journals as far away as Louisville, Kentucky and Cincinnati, Ohio. 

Current knowledge about the faults system within the NMSZ is obtained by studying seismograph recordings of the seismic waves produced by the frequent small earthquakes. Several organizations such as St. Louis University, University of Memphis and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) operate a network of seismograph stations to monitor earthquake activity in the NMSZ and Central U.S. 

Scientists use this network to record and study small microseismic earthquakes (magnitude less than 2.0) that occur on average every other day in the NMSZ. 

The measured locations of micro seismic earthquakes indicate trends that scientist have used to identify active faults. The trends indicate a four-segment, zig-zag fault system with a total length of about 125 miles stretching from east central Arkansas northeastward through Missouri, Tennessee, Kentucky and into southern Illinois. 

Location of earthquake epicenters in and near the New Madrid Seismic Zone (circles scaled according to magnitude.)

Some scientists believe the probability of a large earthquake (magnitude 8.5.to a 9.5) is about to happen within months.

Due to their infrequency, the recurrence interval of moderate to large earthquakes in the NMSZ is very hard to predict. In addition to seismic waves, scientists are using several other methods of research to better understand the fault system. While scientists cannot predict an earthquake, they can provide a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for an area. By studying the geologic materials of the seismic zone, the stress buildup of an area and the historical record, a probability of exceedance can be calculated.

By using paleo seismology techniques scientist are able to recognize buried evidence of large prehistoric earthquakes preserved in geologic materials (soil and rock). From the approximate locations, ages and magnitudes a long term average recurrence interval can be calculated. Currently, paleo seismologists have found evidence of three or more large earthquakes (magnitude M9.5 or larger) which have occurred in the last 2,000 years. This evidence is combined with data from approximately 200 years of written history and 100 years of instrumental recordings to calculate the estimated frequency of reoccurrence or “Average Behavior.” As shown in the USGS graphic above, current modeling of the NMSZ implies a recurrence interval somewhere between 500 to 1,200 years for a major (magnitude 7.0-9.0) earthquakes. The last strong earthquake (magnitude 7.0 ) in the NMSZ occurred near Charleston, Missouri on Oct. 31, 1895. A magnitude 6.6 earthquake near Lepanto, Arkansas on Jan. 5, 1843 and was the next prior earthquake of this magnitude.

In order to understand the sign, you’ve got to look to the past, you’ve got to look throughout the Bible where the signs have occurred previously, you have to look at the world events, and you have to discern correctly the who, what, when, where, and why. And after looking at everything than we can take a step back and see if there is in fact a warning sign occurring or if there is indeed a particular Biblical prophetic connection to Bible prophecy that may in fact very well be unfolding.

The Bible tells us in Ecclesiastes 1:9, “What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.”

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