Daniel Davies ~ Update from Washington

AU
Russia's Replacing Military Equipment at "Unprecedented Pace" Lt Col Daniel Davis - Daniel Davis

The Senate Armed Services Committee held a hearing with General Chris Cavoli, head of the U.S. European Command, discussing the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Key takeaways from the hearing included:

Russian and Ukrainian Military Performance: General Cavoli stated that while Russia has pockets of high skill, its overall military force has been degrading. Conversely, Ukraine started at a disadvantage but has shown improvement. However, the speaker of the presentation argued that Russia's overall capability has been increasing, while Ukraine's forces continue to degrade in both size and effectiveness.

Morale and Motivation: The presentation emphasized that Ukrainian morale is deteriorating due to continuous losses, a lack of resources, and political uncertainties (such as the possibility of a U.S. policy shift under Donald Trump). Meanwhile, Russian morale remains high as their forces grow stronger, rotate troops effectively, and maintain adequate supplies.

U.S. Military Readiness: General Cavoli asserted that U.S. and NATO forces have gained significant insights from the war, making them "exponentially better" prepared. However, the speaker strongly disagreed, arguing that theoretical training cannot replace actual combat experience. He warned that the U.S. military might not be as prepared for high-intensity warfare as leadership believes.

Institutional Learning vs. Battlefield Realities: The speaker noted that both Russia and Ukraine had to adapt significantly during the war, learning through real-time combat adjustments. He expressed skepticism about whether U.S. forces, which have not undergone similar battlefield testing, could match that level of adaptation.

Future Outlook: The speaker suggested that Ukraine's situation is worsening, both in terms of military effectiveness and political support, while Russia continues to improve its capabilities. He cautioned against U.S. overconfidence in its ability to fight a similar war, arguing that assumptions about readiness might not hold up in actual conflict.

Overall, the presentation was critical of the official narrative, arguing that Russia is steadily advancing, Ukraine is struggling, and the U.S. military might be overestimating its preparedness.