Class 45: The False Hope of Falsification

If a model says a thing will happen with certainty, and thg thing doesn't happen, the model is falsified. But this is so rare in science that it doesn't matter. Most models are probabilistic, even the deterministic ones, and so can never be falsified.

Written lecture: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/ https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Jaynes's book:
http://www.med.mcgill.ca/epidemiology/hanley/bios601/GaussianModel/
JaynesProbabilityTheory.pdf

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

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