The Wire - April 8, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z April 8, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE TARIFFS ON CHINA TO BEGIN TOMORROW AFTER NO DEAL REACHED TODAY.//

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-International Events-

Afghanistan: Questionable reporting has emerged claiming that the United States has re-occupied Bagram Airbase. An article was published by Medium two days ago, which claimed that American C-17's landed at Bagram after being handed back control of the airbase from the Taliban.

AC: So far, this story as presented appears to be a fabrication; no sources, including the ADS-B tracking services mentioned in the article confirmed any aircraft landing. The aircraft specifically mentioned in the reporting, a C-17 operating as callsign MOOSE59 (tail number: 02-1099) probably did fly through Afghan airspace on April 5th. However, it did NOT land in Afghanistan...it's destination was Tajikistan.

-HomeFront-

Washington D.C. - Questions remain regarding the details of trade tariffs with China. President Trump's trade tariffs may or may not already be in effect as of noon today, earlier than previously announced. The tariffs are also allegedly higher than previously stated, with some media outlets stating that since no agreement was reached at noon today, a 117% tariff with China will be implemented tomorrow. Otherwise, the economic turmoil of yesterday morning has largely leveled out, with most indexes ending up not as effected as first expected.

This morning the US Supreme Court voted 5-4 to approve the White House's request to continue deportations of violent criminals under the Alien Enemies Act.

AC: This particular action by the SCOTUS isn't necessarily a win for the White House, as the actual opinions provided by the SCOTUS confirm that all Justices think this law *is* subject to judicial review, but this review must be conducted in the original jurisdiction (which was in Texas). Either way, all interpretations of the law are up for debate, so this will certainly be argued in court over the next few years, and remain entangled in some form or fashion.

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Analyst Comments: Just because something seems true, doesn't mean that it is....as rather poignantly confirmed yet again just yesterday. Satellite imagery from just a few days ago confirms nothing has moved at Bagram, and local Taliban officials have proudly stated that they control the airfield. However, this article scandal probably does tacitly imply something interesting...mostly that the United States without question has eyes and ears in the region. What was originally spun as a fake news story might actually have stumbled upon a grain of truth; This flight was probably related to some secret-squirrel tasking, even if the aircraft didn't land directly at Bagram. Despite rather exuberant denials of such, the CIA and other intelligence agencies almost certainly maintain a foothold in Afghanistan, to some degree. Normally, CIA operations personnel don't fly on standard USAF C-17's...they have their own not-so-secret fleet of clandestine logistics aircraft. However, considering the wider context, and even without any evidence whatsoever, a random Medium journalist with 86 followers can claim "the CIA is here"...and in almost all cases be correct. In this case, this is due to the most significant factor of all forms of warfare throughout the history of mankind...geography.

Right about now, with relations with China deteriorating, not having control of Bagram Airbase is a serious strategic disadvantage to the United States. This airbase is one of the reasons the American occupation lasted as long as it did; one of the major unspoken strategic goals of maintaining a foothold in Afghanistan is that it's geography made it a fortress country right at China's backdoor. Now, with trouble brewing in the Far East, not having a foothold at Bagram is disadvantageous, and also why the information space is ripe for a deception campaign, and stories like this gain so much traction immediately...it makes total sense that the US government would do something like this at this point. However, in this case, the claims as they have been made are false. Nevertheless, with the entire global order experiencing a level of upheaval in many ways, careful attention would be wise to place on not just the places where new conflicts might emerge...but also the old sand where forgotten wars were fought long ago.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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