Can SYRIA Survive Its Own NEW Government?

Right, so, so much for the fall of Assad and a bright new dawn for Syria, not that it has been very bright if you happen to be one of the many disparate ethnic minorities there, especially if you are Alawite of Christian. As we have seen, the new administration of Al Qaeda castoffs that is Hayat Tarir Al Sham or HTS, led by Ahmed Al Sharaa, formerly known as Al Jolani, he who formerly had a $10m bounty on his head for his terror crimes, rather than being an improvement have continued with those terror crimes, targeting those minorities in brutally lethal fashion, all whilst they have allowed the south of the country to be invaded by Israel, with out a single shot ever being fired in the direction of the IDF. Such is Al Sharaa’s determination that he wants to be an Israeli ally, that despite strongly worded statements against Israeli atrocity, he still misses the point – Israel doesn’t want to be his friend.
Someone who does profess to be his friend though, is Erdogan of Turkiye, supposedly aiding in the drawing up of a new constitution for Syria, all whilst fighting US aligned Kurds in the north of country, whom Israel have courting for their support as they continue to make their way, seizing more territory in Syria as they go.
Al Sharaa friend Erdogan and who he wishes was his friend Netanyahu, appear to be on something of a collision course with each other, but instead – and this par for the course when it comes to Turkiye – Netanyahu and Erdogan are making plans between them, so is Al Sharaa now shut out and given what we’re seeing, is his upstart administration going to fall almost as fast as it appeared?
Right, so once upon a time there was this nation called Syria, a regional power as it was in the Middle East, a strategic asset to any who were friends with it, smack bang in the middle of the Middle East as it is. Civil war erupted, the decades old despotic Assad regime had gone too far in its oppression, finally falling to the Western backed and Israeli backed forces that for several years had occupied and ruled the Idlib governate in northwestern Syria with an extremist fist, namely HTS, Hayat Tahrir al Sham, borne out of Syria’s Al Nusra Front, which was itself borne out of Al Qaeda, so functionally former Al Qaeda operatives now ruled the country and one such individual, Ahmed Al Sharaa became Syria’s unelected de facto President. Was this ever going to be a good thing given the histories of these people and how they had run Idlib, under a massively restrictive form of Islam? Wasn’t likely was it? But the people of Syria still had hope, after Assad, of course they hoped things would be better.
Instead, Syria has been reduced to a battleground for foreign powers seeking to exploit its further fragmentation. With the fall of the Assad regime, the new unelected government of Ahmed Al Sharaa was supposed to bring stability, that was the hope of the people. Instead, it has presided over a nation on the brink of dissolution—now facing invasions from both Israel from the south and Türkiye from the north who now appear to be quietly negotiating how to partition the country between themselves.
From the moment Al Sharaa and HTS took over, Israel invaded from the Golan Heights in the southwest of the country, illegally occupied territory as that has been since 1967. At the same time Turkiye offered the hand of friendship, HTS didn’t have many of those at this point, but this seems now to just have been an excuse for Turkish forces to take on their old enemy the Kurds in northern Syria and whilst apparently aiding Al Sharaa in the drawing up of a new constitution for Syria, so much of that now appears to be mere lip service to allow Turkiye to expand southwards.
Israel has long justified its airstrikes inside Syria, including on the capital Damascus as necessary to nullify Syria as a threat to their national security, the land in Syria they’ve gone on to seize allegedly forming security buffer zones for their own ends and all despite HTS, who they formerly supplied with aid, saying they still wanted to be allies. They have very much exceeded their usefulness now it would appear. Israel also justified this as a counter to Iranian influence and interrupting supply lines to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel’s endgame goal here, as I spoke about in another recent video is the establishment of David’s Corridor, a strategic land bridge connecting Israel to the US-Kurdish controlled lands in northern Syria, which also just happen to contain Syria’s oilfields. This would require permanent control over southern Syria, securing a direct route to that oil, while isolating Lebanon and Iran.
And this is becoming more and more possible now. With the US reducing its presence in Syrian oil fields and shifting its forces to Iraq, Israel has moved to strengthen ties with Kurdish militias, who will be looking for new allies in the area and with no love lost with Turkiye, these would be the perfect forces for Israel’s own ends if a clash with Turkiye is on the cards. By backing the Kurds, Israel gains a proxy force to counter both Türkiye and whatever remains of the Syrian state.
Despite claiming to target Iranian proxies in the area, hypocrisy writ large as they court the Kurds, as well as claiming Syria under AL Sharaa is still a threat to Israel despite Al Sharaa continuing to prove he’s an absolute poodle towards them by letting them invade with impunity, Israel’s recent ground operations suggest a broader annexation strategy. Reports indicate Israeli forces are establishing forward bases in southern Syria, effectively creating a buffer zone under military occupation.
But then we have to turn to Turkiye as well. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has positioned himself as Syria’s friend and defender, condemning Israeli aggression and supporting anti-Assad factions. Now, he is apparently negotiating with Israel to divide Syria rather than challenge its incursions and in preference to supporting Al Sharaa’s new administration, unelected as that is.
You see reports have now come out that Türkiye and Israel are in talks with each other to avoid a fight over territory, to avoid a punch up over Syrian territory, instead are now seeking to establish a deconfliction line within Syria—a tacit agreement on where each can operate in their side of Syria if you like, without clashing with each other. Israel and Turkiye are by definition plotting to annex Syria between the two of them, utterly destabilising Syria itself and Al Sharaa left totally isolated, unable to fight both, having wasted what little by way of armed forces and munitions he had, fighting ethnic minorities in what amounts to nothing more than petty vengeance against those seen as unacceptable and too close to the former Assad regime.
This deconfliction line would likely take the form of Israel taking the south, being the Golan Heights and beyond all the way up to northeastern areas held by the Kurds, those oilfields, whilst Türkiye would consolidates its hold over the north along its own borders, taking in Idlib, Afrin, and other border regions.
Türkiye’s rhetoric about protecting Syrian sovereignty rings hollow as things stand here now, as it collaborates with Israel to dismember the country. This is possibly rather predictable. Turkiye’s economy and its politics have under Erdogan become increasingly westernised, therefore any conflict with Israel would be catastrophic for Turkiye, the West would not permit their colonial project in the Middle East to be attacked by them, this is I think largely why Erdogan has been all words when it comes to Israel, whilst he has maintained supplying oil to them from Azerbaijan at the same time, He’s a hypocritical idiot, trying to please both sides, but it doesn’t take much digging to show all his actions up for being an utter sham. Therefore rather than resisting Israeli expansion, rather than coming to blows with them, Erdoğan is ensuring Türkiye gets its own slice instead ,exposing his true priority as being one of territorial ambition, chiefly over the Kurds, not Syrian stability at all.
In fact despite Turkiye’s courting of Al Sharaa’s shambolic administration, Türkiye’s obsession with crushing Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria has led to further destabilisation and again, Al Sharaa has justr sat there letting it happen, even when his forces have been in those northern areas, but choosing to persecute the Alawites instead of defending its own borders. As Israel courts those Kurdish forces, Turkiye may end up backing off, asl long as the Kurds leave those border regions, though my word of caution there is the Kurds are also the guards of numerous prison camps containing tens of thousands of ISIS prisoners and all of this destabilisation risks their release more and more and I haven’t heard either side talk of what to do about that, ISIS remnants still persisting in central Syria that should these prisoners get loose, could cause potential further problems festering from within as Turkiye and Israel divide the Syrian spoils.
Ahmed Al Sharaa’s HTS-led government was never legitimate—it seized power in the chaos following Assad’s fall, with no electoral mandate amid claims election are four or five years down the line. Now, his inability to resist foreign invasions has made him a figurehead presiding over a vanishing state. The rug is being pulled out from under him and its not even been 6 months yet since Assad fell.
Functionally, Al Sharaa’s illegitimate sovereignty has completely crumbled.
He has no military to speak of to resist with on one hand. The fight to bring down Assad after 11 years of civil war had weakened state defences, left HTS weakened itself and Israel blowing up munitions dumps and other strategic military assets made sure matters stayed that way.
Al Sharaa’s reliance on Türkiye as on of its few friends has backfired, as they now appear to be prioritising their own interests over Syria’s survival.
Fundamentally what we’re now seeing is the beginning of Syria’s territory being carved up, to suit more powerful neighbours. Al Sharaa’s government may soon find itself ruling over little more than Damascus as israel and Turkiye divide the spoils. If he cannot reassert control – and he’s shown no sign of even cursory ability to do so - his regime is on borrowed time already—either through further internal revolt or complete foreign domination, in all likelihood a bit of both.
This realignment should it fully come to pass, risks turning Syria into a patchwork of foreign-backed fiefdoms, ripe for terror groups to exploit, with no central authority left.
As I see it, there are three possible outcomes for what happens next given Israeli-Turkish plotting.
For one we could see full partition. India and Pakistan all over again in a manner of speaking, where Israel and Türkiye formalize their zones, reducing Syria to either a rump state, or absorbing parts of it into their own borders, which would cause all manner of global political fallout, it’d be like Israel’s plans for Gaza but on steroids here, so I think it unlikely to be anything formal, more de facto seizures of land, occupation, possibly a rump Syrian administration, that Al Sharaa can preside over, left with the ruins.
Alternatively, Turkish hatred of the Kurds, could be a bigger issue going forwards, those potential Kurdish-Israeli ties may provoke a Turkish military response against the Kurds within Syria, not necessarily directly with Israel, just with their proxies here, which may spark a wider conflict.
And thirdly we could be looking at total regime collapse, with Al Sharaa’s government falling and Syria left in total anarchy, whilst Israel and Turkiye grab what they can.
In all scenarios, Syrians suffer while foreign powers profit, their hopes for a better future post Assad, seemingly crushed because of a weak as water leader, with no real power or mandate, thinking he can ally himself with people you shouldn’t trust any further than he could throw them.
Syria’s tragedy is no longer just about war nowit is about erasure. Israel and Türkiye, are now conspiring to dismantle the country to some extent or other, I doubt either knows to what extent yet, while Al Sharaa’s weak regime presumably just keeps on watching and never acting. The US withdrawal from Kurdish lands, leaving a mess behind them as usual, has only accelerated this freefall.
Will Syria soon cease to exist as a coherent nation? Do you see a different outcome here? Do tell me all about it in the comments below if so.
Meanwhile, where things are going less Israel’s way, is Iran, who are set to have indirect meetings with the Trump administration this weekend sending Netanyahu into a rage filled fit, all of his plans and wishes for a US-Iran war may be off the table, so do indulge yourself in Netanyahu’s misery by checking out this video recommendation here as your suggested next watch. Please do also hit like, share and subscribe if you haven’t done so already, so as to ensure you don’t miss out on all new content published daily, as well as supporting the channel at the same time, which is very much appreciated, holding power to account for ordinary working class people and I will hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks.