S&P 500 Daily Update for Monday April 14, 2025

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Summary of the Daily Update for Monday, April 14, 2025:
Market Overview: The week was highly volatile, with significant swings in the market. Despite the turbulence, the market ended up for the week and saw gains on Friday, closing at the intraday high with a 1.81% increase. Volume was above average but lower than earlier in the week.
Technical Analysis:
S&P 500: Long-term support is holding, but the index is close to a potential death cross (50-period moving average crossing below the 200-period). It’s below the 20- and 50-period moving averages (short and intermediate-term negative) but mixed in the long term.
Other Indexes: The NASDAQ has generated a death cross, and the NASDAQ 100 and Dow are close, with death crosses already seen in the mid-caps, and small-caps. This could be signaling potential broader market weakness.
Volatility: The VIX remains elevated at 37.56, indicating significant fear, though it’s down from recent highs. The market is experiencing large daily ranges and choppy conditions.
Market Drivers:
Tariffs: Uncertainty around U.S.-China trade tensions, with new tariffs (145% on Chinese imports, 125% on U.S. imports to China), is driving emotional market reactions. China’s statement about ignoring further U.S. tariff actions adds ambiguity.
Interest Rates: A sharp 0.5% rise in rates over the week (10-year yield at ~4.5%) is causing concern. Speculation points to possible bond sales by China or a Japanese hedge fund as a cause.
Inflation: CPI and PPI data suggest inflation is under control for now (PPI fell 0.4% vs. expected +0.1%), but consumer sentiment is weak, expecting 6.7% inflation next year.
Dollar: The U.S. dollar index dropped below 100, adding to market unease.
Sector and Stock Performance:
All sectors were positive on Friday, with tech and communication services notable. Mega-cap stocks had a strong day.
Individual stocks such as Apple (+4%) showed gains, but many (e.g., Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA) remain in downtrends or below key moving averages.
Sentiment and Indicators:
Sentiment is extremely negative (ulcer index and VIX confirm fear). Consumer sentiment dropped to 50.8 (vs. 54.8 expected), reflecting unease about tariffs and economic changes.
Momentum indicators (e.g., MACD, Coppock curve) remain negative, though some show slight improvement. The market is oversold in tech (NASDAQ 100 at -3 standard deviations).
Earnings and Economic Data:
Earnings season began with mixed bank results. More companies will report soon, impacting market direction.
No major economic reports are due on Monday, April 14, but retail sales and jobless claims later in the week will be key.
Outlook for Monday, April 14:
The market remains negative in the short and intermediate term, mixed in the long term. Volatility is expected to continue due to trade war developments and lack of immediate economic catalysts.
Seasonality for April 14 is positive for the Dow and S&P but neutral to negative for the NASDAQ. Options expiration week historically leans positive (67% up).
Key Concerns:
Potential bear market if the S&P falls 20% from its February 19, 2025, high (currently ~12.71% below).
Technical damage across indexes, with death crosses signaling a possible shift to a downtrend unless buying emerges.
Ongoing trade tensions and rising interest rates could exacerbate volatility.
The market is at a critical juncture, with long-term support holding but significant risks from tariffs, rates, and technical breakdowns. A bounce is possible, but confirmation of a bottom is lacking.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TsA5bQSge1C3J6vndj2X4Bjyxy8e71rc/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!