S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday April 15, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, April 14, 2025, and Outlook for Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Monday Recap:
Market Performance: The market showed signs of stabilization after a volatile week, closing up 0.79% but slightly below the R1 resistance level (5423). It gapped higher at the open, hit the high early, then drifted lower with reduced volume, indicating calmer trading.
Key Levels: Support held at the unchanged level, with a bounce back toward R1. The VIX dropped to 30.89 but remains elevated, signaling persistent fear.
Tariff News: Exemptions for smartphones, laptops, semiconductors, and solar cells from a 10% global tariff and 125% China tariff remaining seemed to provide relief. Other Chinese imports face a 20% fentanyl-related tariff. Temporary exemptions were noted, with potential semiconductor tariffs looming, but the market reacted calmly.
Indicators:
Positive: The Parabolic SAR turned positive, and short-term momentum indicators such as the Stoch RSI and rate of change (5-period) are extreme positive.
Negative: Death crosses in the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100, with small caps, mid-caps, and Wilshire 5000 already negative. Momentum oscillators (slope oscillator, MACD, TTM squeeze) remain extreme negative but are improving.
Mixed: Long-term trend mixed as the S&P 500’s 50-period moving average nears the 200-period, signaling caution.
Economic Context: No major reports on Monday. CPI and PPI last week were market-friendly, and interest rates eased to 4.36% (10-year yield) from 4.49%. Sentiment improved slightly to 19 from 13 but remains negative below 25. The dollar continues to decline below 100.
Sectors: Defensive sectors (real estate, utilities, staples, healthcare) outperformed, while growth sectors (tech, communication, discretionary) lagged, indicating a cautious market stance.
Tuesday Outlook:
Economic Reports: Empire State Manufacturing, import/export prices expected. These typically have minimal impact, but tariffs may draw attention to trade data.
Geopolitical Factors: Focus on Trump administration policy changes, particularly tariffs, and their market reception.
Seasonality: Neutral to positive for S&P 500, neutral to negative for the NASDAQ. Options expiration week historically favors gains (67% up).
Technicals: Short and intermediate trends remain negative, with slight improvements. Long-term trend mixed, with support holding at key retracement levels (38.2% and 50% from October 2022 low). Growth-to-value ratios suggest continued defensive positioning.
Events: European Central Bank meeting on Thursday (expected 25 basis point rate cut) and Good Friday market closure on Friday.
Conclusion: The market stabilized on Monday with tariff exemptions providing relief, but negative trends and defensive sector leadership signal caution. Tuesday’s data and policy developments will be key, with potential for continued volatility if new catalysts emerge. Improvements in momentum and support levels offer some optimism, but the market remains fragile.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pEdYaIUr-P3PkHlw5AISjx-cLMiFnSZI/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!