The Wire - April 16, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z April 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE WAR GROWS IN SCOPE. IMMIGRATION WOES CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

United Kingdom: British media has reported this morning that a record number of illegals have crossed the Channel in boats, with over 700+ illegals gaining entry to the nation just yesterday.

AC: As the warmer weather sets in, migration season is likely to be in full swing. Similar illegal immigration efforts have been noted throughout the Mediterranean at large over the past few weeks, as weather conditions this time of year make crossings more favorable.

-HomeFront-

Texas: The Joint Task Force - Southern Border (JTF-SB) public affairs office released a statement today confirming the deaths of two service members who were killed in a vehicle accident near Santa Theresa, New Mexico. One additional service member remains in critical condition as a result of the accident.

AC: The press release did not specify, however it's likely that this was not a combat-related incident at this time.

Washington D.C. - The trade war between the United States and China has continued to worsen over the past few days. The Chinese government has banned all Chinese airlines from taking delivery of existing orders of new aircraft made by Boeing, and has halted most of the Chinese aerospace industry from buying any American-made parts.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: In the short term, it's hard to convey the real world impacts that a USA/China trade war might have. Generally speaking, uncertainty will drive prices up for most things. However, some goods won't take much of a hit, such as goods that are already extremely over-inflated in price under normal conditions. Some companies may be willing to take a temporary cut in revenue, eating the cost of the tariffs in the short term, with the goal of eventually waiting until things reach a point of stability. Many other companies will probably rely on trickery via a technicality to avoid tariffs in some way, or reduce the impact that tariffs might have. What is far more certain is that the Chinese government wields vastly more control over Chinese companies, than the American government exerts over American companies. This is important in the context of various industries that might be necessary to have in one's homeland in time of war.

One of the more important (yet largely unspoken) aspects of this trade dispute is the military angle. Reciprocal tariffs that exceed 100% are more than a mere trade dispute...this is more or less an attempt at a soft embargo at this point. Both nations are looking at this through the military lens, not the economic lens, a perspective which might explain some of the odd decisions and behavior on both sides. In short, engaging in a trade conflict with a Second World nation where the economy is largely centrally planned, could result in unforeseen developments over time. Especially if both nations continue engaging in this trade dispute, which probably isn't purely economic in nature.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//