S&P 500 Weekly Update for April 21, 2025

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Summary of the Weekly Update (Prepared April 20, 2025, covering April 14-17, looking ahead to April 21-25):
Market Overview: The S&P 500 ended the week down 1.5%, with below-average trading volume in a holiday-shortened week due to the Good Friday holiday closure. The week was turbulent, starting slow but becoming volatile mid-week. All major indexes (Dow, NASDAQ, small caps) closed lower, with small caps performing the worst year-to-date.
Charts and Analysis: Long-term trends are weakening on weekly charts, though not yet fully negative, unlike daily charts showing stronger downtrends.
Market Sentiment and Trends:
Sentiment is extremely negative, with indicators such as the Investors’ Intelligence reading at 0.74, suggesting a potential market bottom. The VIX remains above 20, indicating ongoing volatility.
Defensive sectors (staples, real estate, utilities) outperformed growth sectors (tech, discretionary, communication), signaling a cautious market.
Long-term support levels are holding, but a break below key levels (e.g., S1 or the 2009 trend line) will deepen the downturn.
Economic and Policy Factors:
Interest rates eased slightly after recent spikes, but inflation fears persist. Fed Chair Powell’s uncertainty and tensions with President Trump are adding to market unease.
Tariff developments impacted markets: exemptions for some electronics, but 125% tariffs on Chinese imports and fentanyl-related tariffs dampened enthusiasm. Other tariff investigations (e.g., semiconductors, pharmaceuticals) and trade tensions with the EU and China (e.g., Boeing delivery halts) weighed on sentiment.
Earnings season began with mixed results: UnitedHealthcare’s weak earnings dragged down the Dow, banks showed varied performance, and 75% of S&P 500 companies that have reported (only 12% or SPX companies) are beating estimates.
Sector and Asset Performance:
Tech and semiconductors were hit hard (e.g., NVIDIA and AMD facing significant costs due to Chinese restrictions).
Gold reached another all-time high, outperforming most assets, while bonds and commodities showed resilience. The dollar weakened, and oil prices remain stable in the low 60’s.
Low-volatility and defensive stocks are continuing to gain favor, reflecting a risk-off environment.
Recession Concerns: Employment remains a key indicator; as long as it holds, a recession may be avoided. However, negative GDP forecasts for Q1 2025 (per Atlanta Fed) and ongoing tariff and inflation concerns fuel uncertainty.
Looking Ahead: The market faces challenges with negative momentum, defensive sector strength, and policy uncertainties. Seasonal trends suggest April is typically positive, but 2025 is underperforming. The worst six months (May-October) loom, and while not in a recession, negative trend signals warrant caution, though they could reverse.
All updates reflect real-time navigation of policy changes (e.g., Trump administration) and market dynamics, with historical context pending further hindsight.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aH9cyXtuvpCMCYu9X8K2BjN_AyD0luOB/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!