S&P 500 Daily Update For Friday April 25, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, April 24, 2025, and Outlook for Friday, April 25, 2025
Market Performance on April 24:
The market showed signs of improvement, closing up 2.03% at the intraday high, above the daily pivot of 5,401 and R1 at 5,445.
Positive short-term trend as the S&P moved above the 20-period moving average, though intermediate and long-term trends remain negative.
Volume was below average, indicating caution among investors, with continuing confusion in the market.
Key drivers included short covering and FOMO (fear of missing out), boosting the S&P, particularly mega caps and semiconductors.
The VIX closed at 26.47, above 20 but below 30, signaling moderate apprehension.
Interest rates fell to 4.31% (10-year yield), supporting stocks, while the dollar weakened, potentially aiding equities.
Economic data:
Durable goods rose 9.2% (above 1.5% expected), but excluding transportation, it was flat.
Initial jobless claims at 222,000 (slightly above expectations), continuing claims dropped to 1.841 million.
Existing home sales at 4.02 million (below 4.2 million expected).
Sentiment improved but remains negative, with momentum indicators (e.g., Stochastic RSI, CCI) showing positive short-term momentum.
The market held gains without significant selling, unlike Wednesday’s gap-up and fade.
Technical and Sector Highlights:
The S&P and NYSE McClellan oscillators indicate positive momentum, with some extreme readings suggesting potential short-term exhaustion.
Growth outperformed value; tech, communication, and discretionary sectors led, while staples lagged.
The Magnificent Seven stocks (e.g., Apple +1.84%, Nvidia +3.62%) drove index gains.
Advance-decline lines and bullish percent indexes for S&P and NASDAQ 100 are positive, reflecting broader market strength.
The market remains range-bound, testing the upper end of recent ranges without breaking out.
Key Concerns:
Below-average volume and high VIX (above 20) signal caution.
Negative intermediate and long-term trends, with the market still below the 200-day moving average and recent death crosses in some ratios (e.g., discretionary to staples).
Potential for news (e.g., tariffs, trade deals) to disrupt the current positive sentiment.
Outlook for April 25:
Bias: Positive in the short term, negative in intermediate and long-term trends.
Economic Data: Consumer sentiment report expected, which could influence market mood.
Seasonality: Mixed—neutral to positive for the Dow, neutral to negative for the S&P, and negative for the NASDAQ on April 25. However, post-election years and post-options expiration weeks tend to be positive.
Key Levels: Watch for a breakout above the recent range or a reversal if resistance holds.
Risks: Lack of conviction (low volume), potential news-driven volatility, and overbought short-term indicators could lead to a pullback.
Opportunities: Continued strength in growth sectors (tech, discretionary) and potential follow-through if moving averages (50, 100, 200) are reclaimed.
Conclusion:
The market is improving in the short term, driven by positive momentum and growth sector strength, but remains range-bound and vulnerable to news-driven volatility. Investors should stay cautious, monitor volume and key technical levels, and watch for consumer sentiment data and trade-related developments on Friday.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!