The Wire - April 25, 2025

//The Wire//2100Z April 25, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INDIA-PAKISTAN TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH. POSSIBLE IED DISCOVERED AT FORT BRAGG GATE. TWO JUDGES ARRESTED ON CHARGES OF HARBORING ILLEGALS.//

 -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
 
-International Events-

India/Pakistan: Overnight the situation deteriorated significantly as both sides escalate the situation as expected. So far, no military unit appears to have crossed the Line of Control (LoC) yet, save for one lone Indian soldier who was captured by Pakistani border guards yesterday. This morning an Indian Air Force aircraft jettisoned a fuel tank while over one of their own towns in Shivpuri district, which landed on a house and killed one civilian.

Russia/Ukraine: Tensions have briefly escalated amid peace talks. Two days ago, Russia launched a missile strike on Kiev, striking the Antonov aircraft factory in the industrial sector of the city. This morning, Russian Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik was assassinated via an explosive device that was planted in a parked vehicle near his home in a suburb of Moscow. When the General walked past, the device was detonated.

AC: Even without any evidence indicating blame whatsoever, the overall context strongly indicates that the assassination of a high-ranking Russian General was almost certainly retaliation for the strike at the Antonov factory in Kiev. The attack method was identical to that which killed another Russian General, Igor Kirillov, who was assassinated in the same area (the eastern suburbs of Moscow) back in December of last year.

 -HomeFront-

North Carolina: Last night one of the entrances to Fort Bragg was briefly locked down due to a possible explosive device being detected at the All American Gate. Details are very unconfirmed and highly speculative at the moment, but most local media is stating that a Jordanian national was stopped after he attempted to smuggled an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) through the gate. No official confirmation of exactly what happened has been released by base personnel.

Wisconsin: This morning county Judge Hannah Dugan was arrested by the FBI on obstruction of justice charges for allegedly harboring an illegal alien at her courthouse. In a statement provided by the U.S. Marshalls Service, Judge Dugan aided and abetted an illegal immigrant to evade capture by using off-limits passageways in the courthouse to escape. Judge Dugan also directly lied to federal officials about the illegal's whereabouts when presented with a lawful court order for his detention.

New Mexico: Judge Cano, the infamous Judge who openly admitted to harboring an illegal alien and TdA member in the guesthouse at his home, was also arrested yesterday afternoon along with his wife.

AC: This somewhat surprising arrest appears to have been conducted by the Department of Homeland Security, which could indicate that the immigration status of the immigrant he was harboring was the lesser concern, in favor of the individual actually being a TdA member. Even for New Mexico, where various cartels have a huge influence over the justice system, that TdA label was probably a bridge too far for this Judge to be able to quietly retire and forget about the whole affair (as he tried to do a few days ago).

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst Comments: Some reports have emerged that claim hostilities have already commenced throughout the northern border districts of Kashmir, however at the moment it's not clear if these are legitimate military advances, or just border guards shooting at each other as usual. Reports of heavy artillery being used are more concerning, however at the moment it appears that translation errors could be in play with some of these reports in Indian media. What locals are describing as "heavy artillery" in their native language seems to in actuality be mortar fire, which affects the seriousness of the situation. Cross border fires are quite common by both nations in the region, but the use of what the western world calls "heavy artillery" to fire across the border randomly is less common. What are more frequent (and almost impossible to track and/or verify in this part of the world) are random military units that unilaterally decide to lob a few mortar rounds into abandoned regions across the border.

Regarding the escalations in Ukraine, often times wars flare up on the eve of peace. Of course, no ceasefire has been arrived at yet, much less a long-standing peace deal. However, the normalization of asymmetric warfare among superpowers is not necessarily great for stability. It was a big deal back in December when Ukraine openly claimed credit for the Kirillov assassination. Now that it's happened again, the implications are palpable.

Regardless of how justified Ukraine is in her own defense, the stark reality is that Ukraine's actions will always be tainted by the fact that Russia is a superpower, and Ukraine is not. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but this is the situation that cannot be ignored. In the context of almost all of Ukraine's military decision making being undertaken by the United States, a rather sobering prospect becomes rather obvious.

When Kirillov was assassinated, the United States' official position was that the US was not involved nor did any American advisor have any prior knowledge of the attack being planned. While the truth of this will be debated on the internet forever, one must remember that "beyond reasonable doubt" rarely has any place in the world of international diplomacy between superpowers.

In short, since the United States is funding and (either directly or indirectly) assisting Ukraine in conducting asymmetric warfare in Russia's capital city...there's quite literally nothing stopping Russia from arming cartels or criminal organizations to do the same within the American homeland. Fairness and morality do not necessarily protect from the consequences of actions, such as arming a proxy to conduct asymmetric warfare in your adversary's home turf. Now that routine and regular assassinations of high-ranking officials in an adversary's capital city are on the menu, the level of instability that this brings will probably complicate negotiations moving forward.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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