S&P 500 Daily Update For Monday April 28, 2025

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Market Summary for Friday, April 25, 2025, and Outlook for Monday, April 28, 2025
Friday's Market Action:
The SPX showed limited strength with no significant selling, closing up 0.74% at the R1 level (5525).
Volume remained below average, indicating cautious participation and a lack of strong conviction.
The session started flat, moved positive, dipped slightly negative, and recovered to close near the day's high.
Short-term indicators are positive as the market is above the 20-period moving average, but it remains below the 50- and 200-period moving averages, signaling intermediate and long-term negativity.
The ADX (Average Directional Movement Index) is weakening but negative, with the red line above the green, indicating a lack of strong trend direction.
Positive momentum was seen in short-term indicators (e.g., Stochastics, StochRSI, Williams %R, CCI 14), though some suggest potential overbought conditions.
The VIX dropped below 25 (24.84), reflecting reduced volatility, and sentiment improved slightly to 35 (still negative but up from 31).
Mega-cap stocks and growth-to-value ratios showed improvement but remain in downtrends. Large-cap growth outperformed value, with notable gains in stocks such as Tesla (+9.8%) and NVIDIA (+4.3%).
A debated ZWAG NYSE Breath Thrust signal suggests positive momentum, though some argue it may not meet the exact criteria due to timing or caused by short covering rather than enthusiastic buying.
Key Observations:
Overhead resistance remains a challenge, with the market at the upper end of its range and prior damage from declines limiting upside momentum.
Interest rates have stabilized (10-year yield at 4.27%, down from 4.31%), and there’s no significant flight to safety into bonds.
Earnings season and upcoming economic data (e.g., core PCE, employment report) could influence market direction.
Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel) and tariff discussions are present but not significantly impacting markets.
Consumer sentiment improved to 52.2 (from 48.5 preliminary), but inflation expectations remain high at to 6.5%, raising concerns.
The market is improving but lacks a clear catalyst for a sustained breakout, with FOMO and defensive trading behaviors noted.
Outlook for Monday, April 28, 2025:
Short-term bias: Positive, supported by momentum and position above the 20-period moving average.
Intermediate and long-term bias: Negative, with the SPX still below key moving averages and in a long-term downtrend.
No major economic reports are due on Monday, but weekend developments (geopolitical events, tariff news) could impact sentiment.
Seasonality is neutral to positive for the S&P and NASDAQ, with positive post-election trends for late April.
Key levels to watch: Sustaining above 5500 could signal a potential breakout, while failure to hold may see a retreat toward 5400 or lower.
Investors should monitor follow-through in growth stocks and whether volume picks up to confirm bullish momentum.
Conclusion:
The market is showing signs of stabilization and short-term improvement but faces resistance and lacks a definitive driver for a breakout. Caution is warranted due to mixed signals, below-average volume, and ongoing intermediate/long-term downtrends. Upcoming economic data and earnings will be critical for direction.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cY4U7KDbHYn3CFv9Bpj6rA14p95UbuIV/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!