InterMarket Analysis Update for April 28 May 2, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com/

The weekly Intermarket Analysis Update for April 28, 2025, examines various markets and their potential impact on the S&P 500.
Key points include:
Valuation: The S&P 500's P/E ratio is above 20, indicating an expensive market. The Shiller P/E ratio is 34.22, over double the historical median of 16-17. Forward P/E ratios show mega caps at 22, S&P 500 at 20, mid-caps at 14.3, and small caps at 13.8. The NASDAQ 100's P/E is 24, still high despite declines.
Growth vs. Value: Growth is in a downtrend but improving, while value is holding up better. Growth-to-value ratios show growth underperforming recently, signaling a defensive market if value continues to outperform.
Inflation: The CRB index is declining but remains in an uptrend. Commodities are up, but the Baltic Dry Index is down, suggesting deflationary pressures. Inflation expectations are rising slightly but not breaking out. Specific commodities: aluminum and wheat are down, corn and lumber are up, oil is down, copper is up (positive for the economy), and gold is outperforming oil.
S&P 500 Sectors: Communication and staples are in uptrends, outperforming the S&P. Financials and real estate are improving but in downtrends. Tech and semiconductors are in downtrends, underperforming. Energy is volatile, and industrials are cyclical but weakening.
Indexes and Ratios: Small caps and NASDAQ 100 are underperforming the S&P 500. The equal-weight S&P is aligning with the weighted version. Commodities are outperforming stocks. Low-volatility stocks and staples are outperforming, indicating continued defensiveness.
Bonds and Yields: Bonds are outperforming stocks, with high-yield bonds showing improvement. Interest rates (U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan) are falling, and bond volatility is dropping. The 10-year yield is outperforming tech.
Currencies: The U.S. dollar is weakening against the euro, yen, and pound, potentially due to tariff-related uncertainties. A weaker dollar typically supports stocks.
Other Assets: Gold and silver are in uptrends, with gold outperforming. Bitcoin is in a downtrend but rebounding. Homebuilders are neutral compared to the S&P 500.
Correlations: Stocks and the dollar are showing a slight positive correlation. Stocks and bonds are moving together. The S&P and transports are correlated but Transports are underperforming.
Positive Factors: Value stocks, copper, euro, pound, yen, CRB index, gold, silver, low-volatility ETFs, staples, bonds, high-leverage loans, and NYSE composite are positive.
Negative Factors: Growth indexes, mega caps, U.S. dollar index, Dow Jones composite, tech, semiconductors, major indexes (Dow, NASDAQ, S&P), broad market measures, emerging markets, all stocks, and Bitcoin are in downtrends.
Defensive sectors and bonds continue to outperform. The SPX is showing signs of stabilization but remains vulnerable to further downside if growth continues to lag.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YntTngN4j6TjEgHEVtopH3M3mvWaNQPj/view?usp=sharing

My Exclusive Free Workshop: The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com

Facebook Private Group:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/667271964721864

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!