What’s Next for the S&P 500 This Week?

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Summary of the Daily Update Podcast for May 9, 2025
Market Recap for Friday, May 9:
S&P 500 Performance: Closed slightly down by 0.07% with below-average trading volume, indicating low investor conviction. Prices fluctuated between support at 56.50 and the daily pivot at 56.73, ending nearly unchanged.
Trends:
Short and intermediate-term outlooks are positive, supported by the 20- and 50-period moving averages.
Long-term outlook remains bearish, with the market below the 200-day moving average.
Volume and Sentiment: Low volume reflects uncertainty. The VIX dropped to 21.9 but remains above 20, signaling unease.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators (Stochastic RSI, Williams%R, CCI, stochastics) are positive but cooling.
Intermediate-term TTM squeeze is positive but turning negative.
Smart money indicators (accumulation distribution, Chaiken money flow, Chaiken oscillator) show weakness.
Sector Performance: Energy outperformed, while healthcare, communication, staples, tech, and discretionary lagged, reflecting cautious investor positioning.
Key Levels: The SPY hit resistance at the 200-day moving average and failed to close above 5,700. Support held at 5650, with the weekly close at 5660 above the weekly pivot of 5575 (bullish signal).
Market Context and Influences:
U.S.-China Trade Talks: Investors are focused on talks in Switzerland, with potential U.S. tariff reductions (from 145% to 60-80%) and Chinese tariffs at 125%. Outcomes will drive Monday’s market sentiment.
Economic Data: Stable jobless claims, unemployment at 4.2%, and a 10-year yield rise to 4.38%. The yield curve is no longer inverted but is close.
Earnings: Q1 earnings growth slowed but remained positive; forward projections are less optimistic.
Market Breadth: Positive but with short-term overbought conditions.
Technical Outlook:
The market is non-trending (ADX below 20), favoring sideways strategies.
Resistance at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day EMA, and Ichimoku cloud.
Support at 5575 (weekly) and 50-period SMA (daily).
Momentum is mixed but leans positive short-term, though extreme readings suggest caution.
Looking Ahead to Monday, May 12:
Key Driver: Market reaction to U.S.-China trade talk outcomes, with early clues from Sunday evening futures (e.g., via investing.com).
Economic Calendar: Treasury budget report due Monday; CPI, PPI, and retail sales later in the week. Fed Chair Powell’s Thursday speech is significant.
Seasonality: Options expiration week and post-election year trends introduce a slight negative bias (53% chance of lower closes).
Bias: Cautiously positive for short and intermediate terms, but long-term downtrend and trade talk uncertainty create risks. A negative trade talk outcome could spark a sharp decline.
Trading Levels: Monitor daily pivot points (R2, R1, pivot, S1, S2) on the YouTube community tab.
Conclusion:
The market is in a low-conviction, wait-and-see mode with subdued volume and uncertainty ahead of U.S.-China trade talks. Short- and intermediate-term trends are positive, but the long-term downtrend and resistance at the 200-day moving average are limiting the upside. Investors should watch the futures Sunday evening and prepare for volatility based on trade talk outcomes and upcoming economic data (CPI, PPI).

DISCLAIMER This video podcast is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!