InterMarket Analysis Update VIX Signals Optimism, Bonds Raise Inflation Flags, Large Caps Lead

3 months ago
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InterMarket Analysis Update
VIX and Volatility: VIX nears 20, rolling over as S&P 500 rises, signaling a positive outlook. VIX/VVIX and VIX/MOVE ratios declining, indicating lower volatility. SKU index neutral, Ulcer Index shows decreasing fear.

Bond Market: Rising 10-year yields (4.44%) concern markets, but stocks may hold unless yields exceed 4.5%. Bond ratios (cash to 3–7-year, TIPS to bonds) are stable, but TIPS to 7–10-year rising, hinting at inflation concerns.

Market Ratios: Large caps (Russell 1000) are outpacing small caps (Russell 2000), with recent stabilization. Growth stocks (QQQs) are outperforming value in the short-term; defensive sectors are weakening. Canada hit an all-time high.

Technical Rankings: QQQs (81.8), NASDAQ (76.6), SPY (65.2), mid-caps (41.6), Dow (positive year-to-date), small caps (12.9, improving but weak).

Global and Sector Trends: U.S. stocks are outperforming Europe (DAX) in the short-term. Financials, especially regional banks, show slight improvement. Transports are lagging the Dow. Energy vs. 10-year bond ratio flat, signaling low inflation concerns.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cEPc-iLc6vcfB9KUb1M33VcTGh2A2PbK/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!

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