Deep Dive Market Update S&P 500, VIX, and Key Charts for May 19, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Deep Dive Update

VIX and Market Volatility

A long-term VIX chart with a 50-period EMA shows VIX below 20, correlating with rising S&P 500 and lower volatility. VIX/VVIX and VIX/MOVE ratios declining, SKU Index neutral, and Ulcer Index dropping, all positive for markets.

Bond Market and Rates

Stocks remain resilient despite rising yields, but a 10-year yield above 4.5% could pressure markets. Bond ratios show no major inflation concerns, though TIPS to 7–10-year bonds trending up warrants monitoring.

Market Performance

S&P 500 is 70.5% above October 2022 low, 45.19% from October 2023, and 23.23% from April 7, 2025. Growth is outperforming value in the short-term, large caps are leading small caps, and defensive sectors are weakening.

Technical Indicators

Short- and intermediate-term rainbows (10–100 period MAs) show S&P above key levels, trending up. Bollinger Bands and RSI indicate no extreme conditions. Long-term rainbow and Special K oscillator improving, though the latter remains negative. S&P broke above resistance via the anchored MAs.

Sector and Global Insights

S&P 100 is aligning with the broader S&P 500. U.S. stocks are outperforming Europe in the short-term. Financials and regional banks are improving slightly; transports lagging. Fibonacci retracement shows S&P reclaiming key levels post-trade deal. Long-term rate of change strengthening.

Yield Curve

The 10-to-2-year curve is uninverted (normal), signaling recession watch. The 10-to-3-month curve is borderline, adding uncertainty.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FjWGYvyRJadArR44kliwRFRsB21Z_78-/view?usp=sharing

My Exclusive Free Workshop: The Four P's of Building a Successful Investing Program → https://spxinvesting.mailchimpsites.com

Facebook Private Group:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/667271964721864

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!