Daily Update Podcast for Thursday May 29, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, May 28, 2025, and Outlook for Thursday, May 29, 2025
Wednesday Recap:

Market Performance: The market experienced a lackluster day, with a higher open that failed to sustain momentum. The S&P 500 set its high early but couldn't reach the R1 resistance at 5,946, declining below the unchanged level and finding support just above the daily pivot. Prices dropped below at 5,900 and closed down 0.56% on below-average volume.

NVIDIA Earnings: Reported after market close, NVIDIA's earnings were well-received, boosting the stock and futures in after-hours trading. However, historical precedent suggests mixed market reactions following strong NVIDIA earnings, so caution is warranted.

Technical Indicators:

Short and intermediate-term ADX below 20, indicating no clear trend.

Prices remain above key moving averages (20, 50, 200-day), signaling a positive longer-term outlook.

Parabolic SAR turned positive, a potential bullish signal.

Momentum indicators (e.g., PMO, stochastics) are extreme but rolling over, with TTM Squeeze declining, suggesting waning momentum.

NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index is strong but overextended at 82.

Interest Rates and Sentiment:

10-year Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.48% but remains below the 4.5% threshold.

VIX at 19.31, elevated but below 20, indicating moderate fear.

Sentiment remains cautious (65), with investors hedged due to potential unexpected events.

Other Factors:

A Financial Times report noted the Trump administration’s directive to semiconductor software companies to halt sales to China, potentially impacting the sector.

Fed minutes reiterated concerns about economic growth, employment, and inflation, with rates expected to remain unchanged in June.

Dollar index rose above 100; MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 1.2% week-over-week.

Thursday Outlook:

Economic Data: Key releases include initial and continuing jobless claims, the second GDP estimate, and pending home sales. A significant GDP revision could move markets.

Market Dynamics: Positive seasonality for May 29 (since 2002) and NVIDIA-driven futures gains suggest a potential positive open. However, the market’s ability to hold gains is uncertain, with selling into strength possible.

Key Levels: Watch pivot points (posted on YouTube community tab) and moving averages for support if selling pressure emerges. The 5,900 level is both technical and psychological.

Indicators to Monitor:

Negative signals: Weakening Accumulation/Distribution, Chaiken Money Flow, Chaiken Oscillator, McClellan Oscillators, and long-term indicators such as the Coppock Curve and Zahorchak Method.

Positive signals: NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index, Parabolic SAR, and shorter-term moving average studies.

Sector and Market Trends:

Growth stocks slightly outperformed value, with large and mid-caps showing resilience compared to small caps.

Real estate was flat, while utilities, materials, and energy led declines.

Financial sector and NASDAQ 100 momentum remain relatively stable.

Conclusion:

The market remains positive in the short, intermediate, and long term but lacks conviction, with no clear trend (ST & IT ADX below 20). NVIDIA’s earnings may drive initial optimism, but broader market direction hinges on Thursday’s economic data and whether buyers or sellers dominate. A breakout or breakdown is needed to establish clearer momentum.

PDF of Charts and Slides used in today's video:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E7D6H3E5cQ_pTwAzF824op_7zY7ljcIk/view?usp=sharing

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!