Daily Update Podcast for Friday May 30, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, May 29, 2025, and Outlook for Friday, May 30, 2025
Thursday's Market Action:
Disappointing Day: The market opened higher, driven by Nvidia’s strong earnings, but failed to sustain gains, setting the intraday high at the open and closing just above the daily pivot and 5,900, up 0.4% on below-average volume.
Key Levels: The S&P briefly surpassed R1 at 5925 but found support at the daily pivot (5903). It didn’t break above headed toward 6,000 and settled around 5,900, indicating no clear trend and a "choppy" market.
Economic Data: Weaker-than-expected reports included initial jobless claims at 240,000 (vs. 230,000 expected), continuing claims at 1.919 million, and a revised-down personal spending figure (1.2% from 1.8%). GDP was slightly better at -0.2% (vs. -0.3% expected). Pending home sales dropped significantly (-6.3% vs. -1.1% expected).
Tariff Uncertainty: The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump lacks authority for reciprocal tariffs, but an appeals court disagreed, likely sending the issue to the Supreme Court. This uncertainty, alongside existing tariffs (10% global, 30% on China, 25% on Canada/Mexico), continues to weigh on markets.
Indicators: The VIX remains below 20 (19.18), but momentum indicators such as the TTM Squeeze and PMO showing signs of rolling over despite being in extreme positive territory. The NASDAQ 100 Bullish Percent Index is holding strong, but short-term indicators are mixed.
Sector Performance: Defensive sectors (real estate, energy, utilities, staples) outperformed, while tech and discretionary lagged despite Nvidia’s earnings report. Growth stocks underperformed value stocks intraday.
Market Context:
No Trend: The market remains non-trending, with the S&P above its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages but showing signs of exhaustion. Volume continues to decline, and boom indicators suggest prices may snap back to moving averages.
Economic Concerns: Negative GDP, rising jobless claims, and tariff uncertainty could fuel recession fears. Personal consumption is declining, and exports are weakening.
Valuations and Flows: U.S. equities are increasingly overvalued compared to global stocks. Money continues to flow into tech, but outflows continue. Bonds and stocks saw similar inflows in 2025, with money markets still dominant.
Friday Outlook:
End-of-Month Volatility: As the last trading day of May, expect potential volatility due to window dressing and portfolio rebalancing by money managers.
Key Data Releases: Personal income and spending, core PCE inflation (expected unchanged at 2.6%), Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment reports could influence sentiment. Geopolitical news, particularly on tariffs, remains a wildcard.
Seasonality: Historical data suggests May’s last day is often negative for the Dow and neutral-to-negative for the S&P and NASDAQ, though post-election years show slight optimism.
Technical Outlook: The SPX remains positive but non-trending. Watch for support at 5,900 and resistance at 6,000. A break above or below last week’s high or low could signal the start of a trend, but an "inside week" (highs/lows within the prior week’s range) suggests indecision or a potential reversal.
Conclusion: The market is stuck in a sideways pattern, with positive long-term signals (above 200-day moving average) but mixed short- and intermediate-term momentum. Economic and tariff uncertainties, combined with month-end dynamics, may drive volatility on Friday, but conviction remains low.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!