Is the S&P 500 Getting Ready to Fall Apart?

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Recorded Monday June 2, 2025

The video introduces a series focused on current market trends, specifically analyzing whether the S&P 500 is at risk of declining. Recorded for June 2, 2025, it combines educational content with promotion of the SPX Investing program.

Key points include:
S&P 500 Overview: The S&P 500 rose from 2020 to 2021, entered a bear market in 2022, bottomed out in late 2022, and has been rising since. In 2025, tariff and trade war concerns caused a dip in March-April, followed by a recovery and recent sideways consolidation.

SPY vs. Staples Ratio: The SPY (S&P 500 ETF) to staples sector ratio is used to gauge market sentiment. When the ratio rises, the S&P 500 is outperforming staples (offensive stance); when it falls, staples are outperforming (defensive stance). The ratio peaked in late 2021, declined during the 2022 bear market, and has been recovering but shows recent weakness, signaling potential defensiveness.

Fibonacci Retracement: A Fibonacci chart from the October 2022 low to the February 2025 high shows the S&P 500 hit the 50% retracement level in April 2025, bounced back above the 38.2% level, and is now in “no man’s land.” This tool helps predict potential market retracement levels.

Consensus Approach: This program emphasizes a “weight of the evidence” strategy, using multiple indicators rather than relying on one or two charts to assess market direction, acknowledging both positive and negative signals.
SPX Investing Program: The program offers courses, daily trade ideas, group discussions, one-on-one coaching, newsletters, and podcasts. It’s currently free but will cost $97/month with a 30-day trial. Alternatives include a $19/month YouTube membership for daily & weekly videos, an $8/month newsletter with a weekly edition, and free blog articles at spxinvesting.substack.com.