The Wire - June 3, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z June 3, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: UNDERWATER SABOTAGE OPERATION CONDUCTED ON CRIMEAN BRIDGE. RIOTS ESCALATE IN FRANCE. IED FOUND ON BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY.//

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-International Events-

France: Large scale riots have continued throughout Paris following a local sports victory over the weekend. What originally began as routine celebrations immediately spun out of control to include widespread looting, property damage, and violence. In Grenoble, a vehicle ramming incident was reported as a driver drove into a crowd of people in the street, wounding 4x people. In the small town of Dax in southern France, a 17-year-old was stabbed to death by a mob.

Russia: Various covert Ukrainian attacks have continued. Overnight, explosive charges detonated underwater under the Crimean Bridge, after satchel charges were placed there by Ukrainian (and probably American) frogmen some time ago. Ukraine has taken credit for the attack, and has claimed that 1,100 kg of explosives were used in the attack. In the statement provided on the attack, Ukraine specifically stated that this took several months to bring to fruition.

-HomeFront-

North Carolina: An improvised incendiary device was discovered on the Blue Ridge Parkway just outside of Asheville over the weekend. No details have been provided other than that the device was discovered in the vicinity of the Folk Art Museum. EOD personnel rendered the device safe, and a section of the Blue Ridge Parkway was briefly closed while the investigation was conducted.

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Analyst Comments: The explosive attack on the Crimean Bridge failed to destroy the pylons of the bridge, but this is yet another clandestine effort that took considerable skill to pull off. Regarding the details of the attack, the 1,100 kg figure seems to be dubious at best (due to the small size of the explosion, even taking into account that it was underwater), so it's possible that either this figure is exaggerated or some error prevented the high-order detonation of all of the explosives laid. However if this figure is accurate, this attack would have been one of the largest underwater sabotage operations in modern history. Considering the bridge has been targeted relentlessly by unmanned surface vessels, Russia's security around this bridge is substantial. This seemingly unimportant detail seems unremarkable, but the bridge is also a considerable distance from any Ukrainian-held position. As such, this is not just another day in Russia; this attack (if carried out in the manner speculated) was probably even harder to pull off than the drone attack of two days ago that has shifted the dynamic of warfare.

If the claims made by Ukraine regarding this attack are accurate (and that's a big "if"), transporting this much explosive material could not have happened without direct support from the United States. Submersible vehicles and divers would have needed to work around the clock to transport that amount of explosives underwater from such a great distance. Conversely, if Ukraine/United States has developed some sort of new (or at least, newly operational) unmanned submersible that (most importantly) has the range AND precision to deliver and emplace explosives in this manner, it would be a new milestone in the field of warfare. In short, if divers carried out this attack, it was a very challenging task that only a small number of nations can successfully pull off, and if this attack was carried out by unmanned submersibles, this is still a comparatively new development in the operational status of such targeting methods.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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