Daily Update Podcast for Friday June 6, 2025

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S&P 500 summary for Thursday, June 5th, 2025. Outlook for Friday June 6, 2025
Market Performance: The SPX attempted to push higher but faced resistance at the R2 pivot point and psychological level of 6000. Selling pressure dominated later, leading to a close near the intraday low, down slightly over 0.5%. Volume remained below average, indicating a lack of strong conviction.

Technical Analysis: The market is consolidating sideways, not trending, with prices oscillating around key pivot points. Despite the pullback, the SPX remains above the 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages, maintaining a positive short, intermediate, and long-term outlook. However, long-term trends show a downtrend.

Economic Data: Disappointing reports included productivity down 1.5% (vs. -0.8% expected), unit labor costs up 6.6% (vs. 5.7% expected), and rising initial jobless claims, though still below critical levels. Continuing claims were slightly down, and the trade deficit improved significantly to -61.6 billion (vs. -117.2 billion expected).

Sentiment and Indicators:

The VIX rose to 18.48, indicating increased volatility but still below 20.

Sentiment ticked up to 58 from 54 despite the down day, showing mixed signals.

Short-term indicators (Slope Oscillator) are turning negative, while intermediate-term momentum oscillators are mixed, with some such as the PMO and Aroon showing extreme positive readings.

The ADX indicates a non-trending market, and smart money indicators (e.g., Chaiken Money Flow) show emerging weakness.

Sector Performance: Growth underperformed, particularly in discretionary (down significantly, with Tesla dropping 14.26%) and tech. Communication was the only positive sector. Staples also weakened but less severely.

External Factors: Rising interest rates (10-year yield at 4.39%) likely pressured stocks. News of trade talks between Presidents Trump and Xi, a spat between Trump and Elon Musk, and the European Central Bank’s 25-basis-point rate cut influenced sentiment.

Key Stocks: Netflix hit another new all-time high, while NVIDIA, Apple, and Tesla saw significant declines. Microsoft was a relative outperformer, up 0.82%.

Outlook for Friday, June 6th, 2025

Key Event: The employment report is the focal point, with expectations of 130,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate steady at 4.2%. A weaker-than-expected report could exacerbate negative sentiment, given recent employment weakening trends.

Other Data: Consumer credit data will be released later in the day.

Market Bias: Remains positive in the short, intermediate, and long term but non-trending. The market is likely in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the jobs report, with potential for volatility depending on the outcome.

Seasonality: Mixed, with the Dow positive, S&P negative, and NASDAQ neutral to negative for June 6th since 2002. Post-election year seasonality suggests potential negativity in the following days.

Key Levels: Pivot points for Friday are available on the YouTube community tab.

Conclusion:

The market is consolidating within a range, with Thursday’s pullback easing overbought some conditions. While the broader trend remains positive, short-term weakness and the upcoming employment report could drive volatility.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!