S&P 500 Daily Outlook for Monday June 16, 2025: Friday Declined Amid Geopolitical Tensions

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Market Summary for Friday, June 13, 2025.
Outlook for Monday June 16, 2025.
Market Performance: The market experienced a down day, closing 1.13% lower with below-average volume. Prices gapped lower at the open below S1 (6,018), briefly fell below 6,000 to S2 (5,990) and hit a low at 5,975, where short-term support was found. Buy-the-dip attempts pushed prices back above 6,000 and S1, hitting resistance at 6,025, but selling pressure from "smart money" drove prices back down, setting a new intraday low before closing slightly above 5,975.
Technical Outlook: The market remains positive in short, intermediate, and long-term trends but lacks momentum, indicating a non-trending environment. The pullback appears normal after recent gains, with no significant technical damage. However, one short-term indicator (Stochastic RSI) turned extremely negative, and momentum oscillators are drifting lower. The VIX rose to 20.82, signaling increased fear, and smart money indicators (Chaiken Money Flow, Chaiken Oscillator, Accumulation/Distribution) turned negative.
Geopolitical Impact: Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran and Iran’s missile retaliation heightened market uncertainty. Fears of escalation in the Middle East, combined with domestic U.S. protests, contributed to hedging and selling. Oil prices surged to the mid-70s due to Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, and gold rose amid geopolitical tensions. The dollar and interest rates (10-year yield at 4.42%) also climbed, but no significant flight to safety (stocks to bonds) was observed.
Sector Performance: Energy was the only sector up, driven by rising oil prices. Tech and semiconductors weakened, dragging the market lower. Financials underperformed relative to the S&P, raising concerns, while defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities saw smaller declines.
Economic Data: Consumer sentiment improved to 60.5 (from 53), and inflation expectations dropped to 5.1% (from 6.6%), providing some support for buy-the-dip attempts, though these were short-lived.
Seasonality & Outlook: The second half of June is historically weaker, and low summer volumes may amplify volatility. The market’s positive bias persists, but further declines or negative geopolitical developments over the weekend could shift sentiment. Futures on Sunday evening will provide clues for Monday’s Open.
Monday, June 16 Outlook:
Events: Empire State Manufacturing report (minor). Geopolitical developments (Middle East, Russia-Ukraine) and domestic protests could impact sentiment.
Calendar: Retail sales (Tuesday), Fed rate decision (Wednesday, expected unchanged), Juneteenth market closure (Thursday), and Philadelphia Fed Index/Leading Economic Index (Friday).
Seasonality: Neutral to positive for June 16, but post-election years suggest weakness later in June. Options expiration on June 20 may add volatility.
Conclusion:
The market remains positive across all time frames but is not trending. Monitor geopolitical news, and futures.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!