S&P 500 Weekly Update for June 9–13, 2025 – Geopolitical Shocks Drive Volatility; Cautious Outlook!

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Market Update Summary: June 9–13, 2025, and Outlook for June 16–20, 2025
Summary of June 9–13, 2025:
Overall Market: Declined 0.39%, driven by a sharp Friday drop due to geopolitical tensions (Israel-Iran conflict, Iran’s retaliation). Daily charts positive but lack conviction.
Index Performance:
Dow: -1.3%
NASDAQ: -0.6%
S&P 500: -0.4%
Small Caps: Significant underperformance.
Sectors:
Financials and industrials led declines; financials’ weakness raises concerns.
Energy outperformed (rising oil prices); utilities and healthcare showed resilience.
Growth sectors (e.g., discretionary) struggled.
Market Metrics:
Volume: Below average, expected to drop further.
10-Year Yield: 4.42%, between supportive (below 4.5%) and pressuring (above 4.02%) levels.
VIX: Spiked above 20 on Friday, signaling volatility.
Inflation: CPI favorable, but geopolitical risks and Brent crude spike pose inflationary threats.
Sentiment: Slightly bullish but tempered by Friday’s events.
Geopolitical/Economic Context:
Israel-Iran escalation, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and U.S. domestic issues (riots, Army’s 250th anniversary) add uncertainty.
Economic indicators: Declining inflation (CPI/PPI), slight uptick in long-term unemployment, Fed likely to hold rates (June 18 meeting, 99.6% probability).
GDP: Atlanta Fed at ~4%, New York Fed at 2.33%.
Technical Analysis:
Weekly charts: Weakening trend (falling ADX, negative momentum indicators).
Daily charts: Mixed, with Friday’s drop to 5975 partially recovered but closed weak.
Momentum: Long-term positive, short-term weakening.
Breadth: Positive but contracting new highs, expanding new lows.
Asset Highlights:
Tech/Mega Caps: NASDAQ 100, S&P 100 outperformed; Microsoft strong, Amazon/Apple weaker.
Small/Mid-Caps: Lag, below 200-day moving averages.
Commodities: Oil in mid-70s, gold up 30% YTD, silver trending up.
Bonds unchanged, dollar underperforming.
Outlook for June 16–20, 2025:
Market Schedule: Four-day week (Juneteenth holiday on Thursday), likely lower volume.
Key Risks:
Israel-Iran escalation could spike oil prices, inflation, and volatility.
Domestic (riots) and global (Russia-Ukraine) uncertainties.
Financial sector weakness may signal systemic issues.
Opportunities:
Mega-cap growth stocks (NASDAQ 100, S&P 100) may lead if volatility eases.
Defensive sectors (energy, utilities) could benefit from geopolitical tensions.
Seasonality: June historically weak (~0.5% S&P 500 decline in post-election years), with low summer volume.
Technical Outlook: Monitor VIX (below 20 preferred), financials, and growth stock leadership. Support from April lows holds.
Recommendations:
Hedge long-term investments.
Watch oil prices, financial sector ratios, and VIX for volatility or systemic risks.
Exercise caution due to low volume and geopolitical uncertainties.
Conclusion: Geopolitical shocks drove a negative week, with Friday’s sell-off erasing gains. Technicals remain positive but show weakening momentum and rising volatility. The shortened week ahead, combined with ongoing risks, calls for caution, with potential in defensive sectors and mega-cap growth stocks.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!