S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday June 17, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, June 16, 2025.
Outlook for Tuesday, June 17, 2025
Monday's Market Action:

The S&P 500 opened strong, setting an intraday high just below the R2 pivot point at 6052, but drifted lower throughout the day, closing above 6030 with a 0.94% gain.

Volume remained below average, typical for pre-summertime, indicating low conviction with more selling than buying later in the session.

The S&P stayed above key moving averages (20, 50, 200 periods), maintaining a positive outlook in short, intermediate, and long-term time frames, but the market is not trending (ADX below 20).

Growth sectors, particularly semiconductors and technology, outperformed, recovering from Friday’s weakness. Defensive sectors (energy, healthcare, utilities) lagged.

Key levels: S&P held above 6000, with 6050 as a critical level to watch. The VIX dropped below 20 (19.11), signaling reduced fear.

Economic and Geopolitical Context:

Retail sales, the week’s biggest economic report, is due Tuesday and could influence market direction amid concerns about an economic slowdown.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Israel and Iran, remain a focus, with potential ceasefire talks faltering but no major oil supply disruptions yet. Russia-Ukraine and trade war/tariff concerns linger in the background.

The Federal Reserve’s Wednesday meeting is expected to maintain current rates, with attention on Powell’s statement and press conference for market sentiment cues.

Empire State Manufacturing Survey came in weaker than expected (-16 vs. -6.6 forecast), signaling manufacturing softness in New York.

Market Indicators:

Momentum indicators show mixed signals: short-term oscillators (e.g., Williams %R, slope oscillator) improved, but intermediate-term indicators (e.g., MACD, PMO) are drifting or rolling over.

Smart money indicators (Chaiken Money Flow, oscillator) turned more negative despite the up day, suggesting caution.

Equity flows are weakening, with money shifting to gold (best-performing asset in 2025) and cryptos, and some funds likely moving to cash (money market funds).

Gold is near record highs, oil fell to $71.83, and the 10-year yield rose to 4.42% but remains below the critical 4.5% threshold.

Sector and Asset Performance:

Growth outperformed value, with communication, tech, and discretionary sectors leading. Staples were slightly up, but energy, healthcare, and utilities were down.

FANG stocks (e.g., Apple +1%, Amazon +1.89%, NVIDIA +1.92%) hit all-time highs, showing strength in large-cap growth.

Retail sector is in a downtrend but bouncing off RSI 50, with Tuesday’s retail sales data critical.

Small and mid-caps remain choppy, with small caps facing resistance at the 200-day moving average.

Tuesday Outlook:

Economic Calendar: Retail sales, import-export prices, industrial production, capacity utilization, business inventories, and NAHB housing market index are due. Retail sales will be the focal point.

Geopolitical Watch: Israel-Iran developments remain fluid and could impact oil prices and market sentiment.

Seasonality: June 17 is neutral to positive historically, but options expiration week and post-election year seasonality suggest potential volatility.

Technical Outlook: The market remains positive across all time frames but lacks a clear trend. A break above last week’s high could signal bullish momentum, while failure to hold 6000-6050 may indicate weakness.

Key Levels: Watch S&P 6050 (resistance) and 6000 (support). Continued strength in semis and tech could drive the market higher, but low volume and negative smart money signals warrant caution.

Conclusion:

The market is positive but not trending, with Tuesday’s retail sales data and geopolitical developments as key catalysts. Growth sectors are leading, but mixed indicators and low conviction suggest a choppy environment. Monitor 6050 for potential breakout or 6000 for support.

PDF of Slides: PDF of Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/168XNPCokQ1Px6CyQYWxPf3wY-huhWQf3/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!