S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday June 20, 2025

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Market Summary for Wednesday, June 18, 2025
Outlook for Friday June 20, 2025
Market Performance: The S&P started flat, rose above 6,000 (hitting 6,012, above R1), but declined below the daily pivot (5,993) and closed slightly negative (-0.03%). Volume remained below average.
Federal Reserve: No rate changes (4.25%-4.5% range). The Fed’s SEP report projected two rate cuts by year-end, unchanged from March. Inflation estimates rose (2.7% to 3%, core PCE 2.8% to 3.1%), GDP growth was revised down, and unemployment revised up (4.4% to 4.5%).
Geopolitical Factors: Market sentiment was influenced by U.S.-Israel-Iran tensions, with increased hedging possibly due to the Thursday market closure. Trump emphasized Iran must not have nuclear weapons, hinting at significant developments soon.
Economic Data:
Jobless claims were in line with expectations; continuing claims at 1.945M.
Housing starts (-9.8% MoM, 1.256M annualized) and building permits were weaker than expected.
Mortgage applications declined.
Technical Indicators:
Price above 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages (positive short, intermediate, long-term).
Parabolic SAR turned negative; momentum oscillators mostly negative, with short-term turning negative, intermediate-term weakening, but long-term (KST, TRIX) still extreme positive but declining.
VIX at 20.14, above moving averages, indicating volatility. Skew index suggests big move expectations.
Advance-decline lines showed slight weakness; smart money indicators negative.
Sectors and Ratios:
Tech saw fund inflows; growth outperformed value intraday but ended mixed.
Discretionary vs. staples and high-beta vs. low-beta ratios holing up.
Financial sector stable; FANG index down 0.33%.
Other Markets: Oil at $73.56/barrel (geopolitical influence), dollar up but in a downtrend, 10-year yield at 4.4%, Truflation at 2.12%.
Outlook for Friday, June 20, 2025:
Markets closed Thursday (Juneteenth). Friday is options expiration (triple witching + single stock futures), potentially causing volatility.
Economic releases: Philadelphia Fed Index, leading economic indicators.
Seasonality: Mixed (Dow neutral-negative, S&P neutral-positive, NASDAQ neutral-negative). Post-election year suggests possible weakness into early next week.
Conclusion: The SPX remains positive (above moving averages) but not trending. Geopolitical risks and economic data will drive sentiment.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!