The Wire - June 19, 2025

//The Wire//2100Z June 19, 2025//
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//BLUF: MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE IN MIDDLE EAST AS USA CONTINUES WARTIME PREPARATIONS. DATA BREACH LEAKS 16 BILLION LOGIN CREDENTIALS.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Missile attacks between Israel and Iran continue. Crude oil prices have increased in response to the concerns that Iranian forces may mine the Strait of Hormuz (as has been theorized as a possibility for a long time). Navigational issues remain palpable as GPS jamming and spoofing has prevented satellite navigation methods from being effective. US military logistical flights continue throughout the region, and non-essential personnel are still quietly being evacuated from various diplomatic posts (such as the US Embassy in Baghdad). This afternoon the White House stated that President Trump will make his decision on direct strikes against Iran within the next two weeks.

AC: As with everything the White House has stated this week; this can be interpreted in many different ways. This could be a quiet way of telling Israel "no" without openly defying them, or (more likely) it could be stalling for time while American military assets continue to pour into the region. There is also a fairly good chance that the "2 week" time period is a deception tactic, and that a decision has been made that will come to fruition much sooner than that.

-HomeFront-

USA: This afternoon a new data breach was reported as approximately 16 billion login credentials have been leaked. Google, Apple, and Facebook are most affected by the breach, which was discovered back in May (though the magnitude of which has only recently become public).

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Analyst Comments: The GPS jamming throughout the Strait of Hormuz may be the cause of the recent collision between oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman a few days ago. GPS jamming and spoofing in these waters has been extremely common over the past few decades, so it hasn't impacted operations that much more than normal. However, it's still a concern as operating in a GPS-denied environment makes things more challenging, and if crew members become complacent, tragedy can strike very quickly. Should things also go kinetic in the Strait of Hormuz, the rescue of crews onboard stricken commercial vessels will become more challenging due to these navigational issues.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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