Deep Dive Update for Monday June 23, 2025

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Deep Dive Update
Prepared for June 23, 2025

This section provides a detailed technical analysis of market trends, incorporating charts and indicators from the week of June 16–20, 2025, and unique insights for Monday’s outlook.

Market Performance

The S&P 500’s 0.15% decline reflects a cautious market, with Friday’s options expiration driving volatility. Since October 2022, the S&P is up 70%, 45% from October 2023, and 23.5% from April 2025. It remains 2.64% above its 200-day moving average and above all anchored moving averages, with potential support levels intact.

Volatility and Sentiment

The VIX is above 20 on daily charts but below 20 long-term, suggesting caution without extreme fear. The VIX-to-VVIX ratio is declining, a positive for stocks. The Ulcer Index remains below its moving average, and the VIX-to-MOVE (bonds) ratio shows a slight upturn, warranting attention.

Breadth and Advance-Decline

S&P and NYSE advance-decline lines show recent weakness but lack strong bearish conviction. Volume-based lines are holding up better than price-based ones. Stocks above 200-day and 50-day moving averages in the S&P remain above 50%, but mid-caps and small-caps are weaker. The S&P-to-staples ratio is improving, signaling less defensive positioning.

Sector Studies

Sector ratios (e.g., discretionary-to-staples, tech-to-utilities, biotech-to-healthcare) are mostly sideways, lacking clear trends. Bellwethers such as semiconductors and transports show no significant directional moves. Energy-to-bond ratios are rising due to geopolitical tensions, while gold-to-S&P and emerging-to-developed markets remain range-bound.

Technical Indicators

Moving Averages: Short-term (20-period), intermediate-term (50-period), and long-term (100-period) trends are positive, though short-term trends show vulnerability.

Momentum: Large-cap growth ETFs remain above moving averages, with momentum stocks outperforming, a bullish sign. Technical scores rank QQQs (63.4) and NASDAQ (52.8) highest, with Dow (20.6), mid-caps (13.9), and small-caps (10.3) lagging.

Other Indicators: Bollinger Bands, Connors RSI, and standard deviation show no extreme readings. The point-and-figure chart and Ichimoku cloud remain bullish. The VXN (NASDAQ VIX) is slightly up, reflecting mild caution.

Yields and Bonds

The 10-year yield (above 4%) minus German yield correlation with the U.S. dollar is weakening due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties. TIPS and bond ratios suggest low inflation fears. The 2-year yield is trending down, and the 10-to-3-month yield curve’s brief inversion raises recession concerns.

Global Markets

The German DAX is retreating to its 50-day moving average but remains in an uptrend. The S&P 500 is starting to outperform the DAX slightly.

Key Takeaways

The market remains supported by growth stocks and broader indices, but weakening daily trends and breadth suggest caution. Geopolitical risks, particularly in oil, could drive volatility, with key levels and sector performance critical to monitor.

PDF of Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ECfA9iMtPxHOUfxhDw4-dJiQud2bjd5I/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!