The Wire - June 23, 2025

//The Wire//1730Z June 23, 2025//
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//BLUF: IRANIAN COUNTERATTACK TARGETS US MILITARY BASES IN MIDDLE EAST. SHIPPING CONCERNS MOUNT AS IRAN THREATENS TO TARGET SHIPPING IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ.//

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Middle East: This morning the kingdom of Qatar closed their airspace to commercial aviation traffic. Separately, both the United States and Britain issued shelter-in-place orders for their citizens. Shortly after these announcements, multiple Iranian ballistic missiles struck US military bases throughout the region. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar appears to have been successfully targeted to some degree, and impacts were reported at the US Navy base in Bahrain. Reports have emerged indicating unknown bases in Iraq were also targeted by ballistic missiles.

Shortly after the missiles were launched, American fighter aircraft were observed scrambling in Saudi Arabia, with a number of sorties being conducted on targets unknown.

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Analyst Comments: As this is a developing situation, the success of these missile strikes remains unknown until the dust settles. Video evidence indicates that many of the missiles were successfully intercepted, however some made it through to successfully impact their targets. Qatar announced that 100% of the missiles intended for their nation were successfully intercepted, however this remains unconfirmed at this time and Qatari media groups stated that at least three missiles evaded defenses to impact at Al Udeid. No word on casualties from any of the strikes reported so far today.

Following the strikes on Iranian facilities over the weekend (and today's retaliatory strikes), tensions have escalated sharply throughout the region. Iranian forces have threatened to "close" the Strait of Hormuz, which traditionally involves the emplacement of sea mines throughout the choke point. There are no indications that IRGCN and/or IRIN vessels have laid any mines just yet. However, some commercial shipping companies that are unwilling to accept the risk have turned around and begun returning to their homeports.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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