S&P 500 Daily Update for Tuesday June 24, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, June 23, 2025
Outlook for Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Monday Market Action:

S&P Futures: Gapped lower Sunday evening but recovered with a flat open, climbing above the daily pivot at 5980, nearing R1 at 6,007, and closing at 6,025 (+0.96%).

Volume: Above average, notable for a non-special trading day, indicating some conviction.

Market Movement: Early buying wave post-open, brief pullback due to geopolitical fears, then a rally after fears subsided, holding gains into the close.

Technical Indicators: The SPX remains above the 20-period moving average, supporting a positive short, intermediate, and long-term bias, though not trending (sideways consolidation).

Geopolitical Context: U.S. involvement in Iran nuclear facility strikes and Iran’s pre-announced missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar (intercepted, no casualties) caused temporary market jitters but disruption of oil supplies is not happening yet. Talks of a potential Israel-Iran ceasefire emerged late Monday.

Economic Factors: Falling interest rates (10-year yield at 4.32%), weaker dollar, and Fed comments supporting potential July rate cuts (Governors Bowman and Waller) bolstered stocks. Oil prices dropped to $68 from $74.

Sectors: Energy was down, while discretionary, communication, and tech sectors had gains.

Sentiment: Ticked up to 57 (positive territory). VIX fell to 19.83, indicating reduced volatility.

Key Observations:

Market resilience despite geopolitical tensions, with no major oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Mixed signals: Momentum oscillators show extreme positive readings but are declining; accumulation distribution turned positive, but some indicators (e.g., NYSE McClellan oscillator) remain negative.

Small and mid-caps range-bound, with financials improving. Mega caps such as Microsoft and Tesla performed well, while Amazon and Google lagged.

Seasonality for June 24 is historically negative, especially for NASDAQ (up only 19% of the time since 2002).

Tuesday Outlook:

Economic Calendar: Current account balance, FHFA housing price index, S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, and consumer confidence reports due, none considered major market movers.

Geopolitical Monitoring: Developments in U.S.-Israel-Iran relations could influence sentiment.

Fed Focus: Fed Chair Powell’s Senate testimony Q&A may provide insights into monetary policy.

Futures: Up about 0.5% in overnight trading, reflecting optimism around ceasefire talks.

Bias: Remains positive across all timeframes but not trending, with mixed momentum signals suggesting caution.

Conclusion:

The SPX showed resilience with above-average volume and a positive close despite geopolitical noise. However, lack of trend and mixed indicators suggest continued sideways action unless a breakout occurs. Tuesday’s economic data and geopolitical updates will be key, with seasonality posing a potential headwind.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!