The Wire - June 24, 2025

//The Wire//2300Z June 24, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE IMPLEMENTED, IMMEDIATELY BROKEN. MASS SHOOTING PREVENTED OVER THE WEEKEND IN MICHIGAN.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Following yesterday's missile attack on Al Udeid Air Base, President Trump announced the implementation of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. This ceasefire was immediately broken.

Though the details are hard to verify, in the interest of expediency the following is a rough timeline of how events have unfolded over the past 24 hours.

June 23, 1630Z: Iranian forces carried out their counterattack via a ballistic missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base.

June 23, 2202Z: President Trump announces the ceasefire terms in a post on Truth Social. In this post President Trump announced the time frames for when the ceasefire was intended to go into effect.

June 24 - A few minutes after this announcement, Israeli forces sortied to carry out one of the largest bombing attacks they have conducted, after the ceasefire was announced, but before the ceasefire took effect.

June 24 0110Z: Explosions were reported at Evin Prison and at a few others sites around Tehran. At some point during this attack, one Iranian missile was launched (according to President Trump, possibly in error), which did not impact any target in Israel.

June 24 - Immediately following this possibly-errant launch (that took place during Israel's attack), Israeli forces planned to conduct a large-scale bombing of Tehran. This raid was to be carried out a day after the ceasefire took effect.

June 24, 1128Z - President Trump, assessing that this "bomb everything we can before the ceasefire" mentality expressed by the Israelis was a bad-faith attempt to "cheat" the brokered deal, became belligerent on social media, urging Israeli forces to call off the attack. A few moments later, President Trump (being made aware that Israeli aircraft had already taken off), attempted to salvage the already-violated ceasefire directly by calling Netanyahu to urge him to call off the attack. A few minutes after this phone call, President Trump claimed that he had convinced Netanyahu to call off the attack, and that the Israeli planes would return to base after conducting a "plane wave" (no further information on what that means, but he was possibly referring to a flyby of some kind).

June 24, 1257Z - Explosions were reported in Tehran, confirming that Israel ignored President Trump's ceasefire. Israeli media sources claim that instead of dropping all of their bombs (as they had planned) Israeli forces only bombed one target post-ceasefire due to President Trump's phone call. This remains unconfirmed at this time, however reports from locals on the ground claim that a radar site was struck north of Tehran.

June 24, 1400Z- After this sortie, President Trump made statements to the media before departing on Marine One for a NATO summit. President Trump confirmed that Israel had broken the ceasefire deliberately, and that Iran had done so as well (but possibly in error).

AC: As of this report, the Iranians have not responded to the post-ceasefire strike, and much of the prior details will likely be clarified in due time.

-HomeFront-

Michigan: On Sunday a mass shooting was successfully stopped by prepared citizens at the Crosspointe Community Church in Wayne. Local authorities state that Brian Anthony Browning approached the Church shortly before services began, and began shooting at the Church building. Upon witnessing the shooting taking place, one of the parishioners of the Church rammed the assailant with their vehicle in the parking lot, after which two armed parishioners returned fire on the suspect, halting the attack. Browning was killed in the attack, and one member of the Church was wounded.

AC: Though the threats posed to Christian Churches around the world remain elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, this appears to be more of a mental health incident than a traditional terror attack as locals have stated that a family member of the suspect was a member of the Church. Nevertheless, this case has proven that increased vigilance and situational awareness does indeed save lives.

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Analyst Comments: The concept of a "ceasefire" is something that is not often congruent with the Middle East region. In almost all cases, what are touted as hard-timelines by western nations are treated as loose guidelines by the belligerents involved on all sides. Most of the time, the term "ceasefire" works out to mean a general reduction of major offensive attacks; random airstrikes and rocket attacks usually continue along the front regardless of whatever agreement is reached.

In the Middle East, the question isn't whether or not the ceasefire will hold, but hold long it will last before one or both sides violate it and the war kicks off again...it could be any period of time ranging from minutes to years. At this point, probably the best that anyone can hope from any "ceasefire" during this war is for the Iranians to stop launching ballistic missiles, and for the Israelis to stop bombing runs in Tehran. If these two very low-bar requirements can be met, the ceasefire (if we can even call it that) might last a few more weeks. Clearly, the recent statements by the White House and President Trump himself indicate that the United States considers the matter closed; bookending the spat by calling it the "Twelve Day War" implies that the war only lasted twelve days. However, this affair might not be over just yet.

Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
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