Daily Update for Wednesday June 25, 2025

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Market Update Summary for Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Outlook for Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Market Performance on June 24:
The market opened higher, gapping above the R1 resistance level at 6,055, above the 6,050-resistance level, and climbed to R2 at 6,085, approaching the psychological 6,100 level, nearing the all-time high.
The S&P 500 closed up 1.11%, slightly below 6,100, with above-average volume for the second consecutive day, indicating increased conviction.
Positive short, intermediate, and long-term trends persist, supported by declining interest rates (10-year yield at 4.3%) and a weakening dollar.
Mega-cap stocks, tech, semiconductors, and high-beta stocks outperformed, while small caps did well but remain range-bound. Oil prices dropped to the mid-60s, easing market fears.
Key Indicators:
The ADX (Average Directional Index) remains below its moving average, indicating no strong trend yet, needing more follow-through for a bullish trend to develop.
Momentum indicators showing positive signals: Williams %R, CCI (14 and 20), and short-term stochastics turned positive, while longer-term momentum oscillators others such as the MACD and PMO remain negative but improving.
The NASDAQ 100 saw a golden cross (50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day), signaling a positive trend shift.
The VIX and VIX of VIX declined, reflecting reduced market fear, while the advance-decline line based on volume hit a new high.
The market closed outside the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting overbought conditions that may lead to a pullback or consolidation.
Economic and Geopolitical Developments:
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony lacked decisive guidance, noting potential tariff-driven inflation but openness to future policy actions. His comments suggested uncertainty, with possible rate cuts if inflation cools.
Geopolitical news included a reported ceasefire between Israel and Iran, though conflicting reports and Trump’s reactions created uncertainty. U.S. involvement and unclear outcomes regarding Iran’s nuclear facilities added complexity.
Economic reports weaker-then-expected: current account balance worse than expected at -$450.2B, FHFA Housing Price Index down 0.4%, Case-Shiller Home Price Index up 3.4% (below 4.1% expected), and consumer confidence at 93 (below 99 forecast).
Weaker economic data could prompt Fed rate cuts, potentially boosting stocks.
Sector and Asset Performance:
Tech, communication, and discretionary sectors gained, while energy weakened due to falling oil prices. Staples underperformed, which is positive for market sentiment.
The FANG index hit an all-time high, with strong performances from Microsoft, Netflix, and Amazon. Apple and Tesla were slightly down.
Semiconductors outperformed, with the SMH ETF and Dow Jones Semiconductor Index showing strength.
Gold remains range-bound near record highs, and the dollar continued its decline.
Wednesday Outlook (June 25):
Pivot points for Wednesday were shared on the YouTube community tab.
Seasonality data suggests neutral to slightly positive conditions for the S&P and NASDAQ, with potential weakness in the Dow post-options expiration.
Key economic reports include MBA Mortgage Applications and new home sales, with major inflation data due Friday and Powell’s second day of testimony on Wednesday.
The market remains positive but not trending, needing sustained momentum to confirm a bullish trend.
Conclusion:
The S&P 500 showed strength on Tuesday, breaking key resistance levels and approaching all-time highs, supported by declining rates and a weaker dollar. However, mixed technical indicators and the lack of a strong ADX trend suggest caution. Geopolitical uncertainties and upcoming economic data will be critical. The outlook remains positive but requires further follow-through for a confirmed trend.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!