Daily Update Podcast for Thursday June 26, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Summary for Wednesday, June 25, 2025
Outlook for Thursday, June 26, 2025
Market Performance:
The S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged, with the S&P 500 down a few points (percentage basis: 0%). Mega-cap stocks and semiconductors strength prevented steeper declines.
NASDAQ 100 hit a new all-time high, driven by mega-caps and semiconductors, while the broader market showed more weakness.
The market opened higher at 6110 (above 6100) but couldn't sustain momentum, drifting to the daily pivot of 6084 and closing unchanged.
Volume was below average, indicating low conviction. No significant late-day push from smart money.
Key Observations:
Mega-Caps & Semiconductors: Outperforming, supporting the market. Tech and growth sectors stronger than value.
Technical Indicators:
NASDAQ 100 formed a golden cross; S&P 500 nearing one.
Market remains above 20, 50, and 200-period moving averages, signaling short, intermediate, and long-term positivity but no clear trend.
Short-term momentum improving (e.g., Williams %R, CCI charts), but intermediate and long-term oscillators remain mixed or negative.
Growth-to-value ratios improving, particularly for large caps, with semiconductors outperforming tech.
Economic & Geopolitical Context:
Fed Chair Powell’s testimony repeated prior remarks, with no market-moving news.
NATO’s 5% defense spending commitment noted.
No major developments in Israel-Iran tensions; U.S. involvement unclear.
New home sales dropped 13.7% month-over-month (623,000 annualized vs. 700,000 expected). Mortgage applications up slightly (+1.1%).
Dollar weakened (97 range), supporting stock earnings via currency conversion. Interest rates dipped to 4.29%.
Sentiment & Market Dynamics:
Sentiment positive (59), but mixed signals due to lack of conviction.
High call option volume (SKU index) suggests speculative fervor, potentially risky.
NASDAQ 100 bullish percent index at 70 (extreme level). Financial conditions loosening, but economic reports weaker than expected.
Buybacks increasing, supporting market positivity.
Sector Performance:
Positive: Tech, semiconductors (e.g., NVIDIA +4.33%, Microsoft all-time high), large-cap growth.
Negative: Staples, industrials, utilities, real estate, small caps, and mid-caps (struggling below 200-day moving averages).
Mixed: Communication and discretionary sectors slightly down but holding up relative to staples.
Thursday Outlook:
Key economic data: Initial/continuing claims, durable goods, third GDP estimate, pending home sales, and advanced international trade.
Core PCE report on Friday is a major focus.
Potential positive seasonality as June ends and July begins, historically favorable for NASDAQ and semiconductors.
Geopolitical developments (e.g., Middle East) could shift market dynamics.
S&P 500 remains positive but not trending, with mixed momentum and bias. Watch for conviction to drive a breakout or pullback.
Conclusion:
The market is holding above key moving averages with strength in mega-caps and semiconductors but lacks conviction and a clear trend. Thursday’s economic data and geopolitical updates could influence direction, with seasonality potentially supporting gains.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!