S&P 500 Daily Update for Friday June 27, 2025

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Market Summary for Thursday, June 26, 2025
Outlook for Friday, June 27, 2025
Thursday Recap:
Market Performance: The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, closing just under one point shy of a new intraday all-time high (previous high: 6147.43 on Feb 19). The NASDAQ 100 set a new all-time high for the second consecutive day.
Trend Development: A positive trend is emerging across all time frames, with strong short-term momentum. The market is recovering from a 21% drop from March to April, now nearing February’s high after a 42-43% round trip.
Volume Concerns: Below-average trading volume indicates a negative divergence, as the market nears all-time highs with reduced participation.
Key Levels: The S&P 500 opened above the R1 pivot point (6,107) and stayed above 6,100, previously a resistance level. It also surpassed R2 but didn’t face significant selling pressure.
Sector Performance: Mega caps and semiconductors led gains, boosting the S&P 500. Small and mid-caps showed strength but lack consistent follow-through. Tech and growth stocks outperformed value stocks.
Economic Data:
GDP: First-quarter GDP revised down to -0.5% (from -0.2%), with inflation (deflator) up to 3.8% (from 3.7%). The market dismissed this as old news.
Durable Goods: Up 16.4% month-over-month, far exceeding expectations of 6.6%.
Jobless Claims: Initial claims fell to 236,000 (below expected 247,000), but continuing claims rose slightly to 1.974 million, signaling some difficulty in reemployment.
Other: Trade deficit widened to -$96.6 billion; pending home sales rose 1.8% (above expected 0.4%).
Market Sentiment: Positive but not overly bullish (sentiment at 62, up from 59). The VIX is under 20 and declining, indicating lower volatility. The dollar weakened, and 10-year Treasury yields dropped to 4.25%, supporting stock gains.
Technical Indicators:
Short-term indicators (e.g., StochRSI, Williams %R, CCI) show overbought conditions but are positive in a bullish backdrop.
Intermediate-term indicators are improving, with the S&P 500 in the +3 standard deviation channel.
Volume-based indicators (e.g., advance-decline line) are stronger than price-based ones, suggesting potential for further gains.
The ADX is rising, indicating a strengthening trend, though not yet confirmed above 20.
Friday Outlook:
Seasonality: Historical data suggests a slightly positive bias for June 27, with July often positive, especially for the NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 in post-election years.
Economic Events: Key reports include personal income and spending, core PCE (a major inflation gauge), and consumer sentiment, which could move the markets.
Geopolitical Risks: Potential weekend hedging could occur due to ongoing issues (e.g., Iran-Israel, NATO summit), though these are currently less prominent in market focus.
Market Dynamics: Monday (June 30) is the last day of the month and quarter, potentially leading to window dressing and volatility. A new all-time high is possible if momentum holds, but low volume and overbought signals warrant caution.
Pivot Points: Updated daily on the YouTube community tab, guiding key levels for Friday’s session.
Conclusion: The S&P 500 is positive with a developing trend across short and intermediate terms, driven by mega caps and semis. While economic data shows mixed signals, the market remains resilient. Friday’s economic reports and potential geopolitical developments could influence whether the S&P 500 breaks its previous all-time high, but low volume and overbought conditions suggest caution.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!