InterMarket Analysis Update for Monday June 30, 2025

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The Intermarket Analysis Update for June 30, 2025, highlights several positive developments in the market, despite stocks remaining historically expensive.
Key points include:
Valuation: Stocks are expensive with a high PE-10 ratio (37.65, above the historical mean/median of 16-17). The S&P 500 hit an all-time high, but would need to fall to 4,200 to be considered fairly valued. Mega-cap stocks (PE 29) and the S&P (21.9) are expensive, while mid-caps (15.9) and small-caps (15.2) are more fairly priced.
Growth vs. Value: Growth stocks are outperforming value, with the growth index hitting a new all-time high and generating a golden cross. Value is underperforming but not collapsing, with global markets favoring value over growth, unlike the U.S.
Inflation: Inflation is ticking up slightly but not a major concern. The CRB Index is in an uptrend, while the Baltic Dry Index is pulling back but in an uptrend. Inflation expectations and TIPS show mixed signals, with no strong inflationary pressure.
Other Markets: Commodities such as aluminum, corn, and wheat are in downtrends, while copper is in an uptrend, signaling economic optimism. Oil and diesel spiked but are pulling back, and gold is sideways to slightly down.
Sectors and Indexes: The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and FAANG indexes set new all-time highs. Tech and semiconductors are strong, with the latter nearing a golden cross. Small caps and equal-weight indexes lagging but are improving. Utilities are a potential growth area due to AI and EV demand.
Currencies and Bonds: The U.S. dollar is in a downtrend, while the euro, yen, and pound are rising. Bonds are improving, with high-yield and corporate bonds in uptrends. The stock-to-bond monthly ratio is nearing an all-time high.
Positive Factors: Growth stocks, copper, major currencies, gold, silver, tech, semiconductors, and high-yield bonds are in uptrends. The NASDAQ 100, NYSE, and FAANG indexes are strong.
Negative Factors: Value stocks, the U.S. dollar, Dow Jones composite, mid-caps, small-caps, and micro-caps remain in downtrends.
Overall, the markets are showing broad participation and positive momentum, particularly in growth, tech, and semiconductors, with potential for U.S. markets to outperform globally if trends continue.

PDF of Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/18FQEjrKkBWdRwO3lAf1I1EDneY9Kmraj/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!