Deep Dive Update for Monday June 30, 2025

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The Deep Dive Update, prepared for June 30, 2025, analyzes various market indicators to provide a comprehensive view of market trends, focusing on charts not regularly featured in the daily videos. A "Consensus Approach," is used when evaluating multiple data points to assess market conditions.
Key points include:
VIX (Volatility Index): The long-term VIX chart, a fear gauge for the S&P 500, is below 20, indicating a positive market environment. It has been declining as stocks rise, with no extreme sentiment readings, suggesting room for further upside. Short-term VIX RSI shows no extreme positive or negative sentiment, reinforcing market stability.
Market Performance: The S&P 500 recently hit all-time highs, up 76.65% from October 2022, 50.42% from October 2023, and 27.67% from April 2025 lows. The market is 5.89% above its 200-day moving average, not yet overextended.
Other Indicators:
VIX/VVIX Ratio (VIX Volatility): Declining, signaling positive market sentiment.
Skew Index: Dropped after peaking, possibly reflecting options activity but unclear on directional impact.
Ulcer Index: Below its moving average, indicating reduced investor stress.
Move Index: Shows stocks becoming less volatile, a positive sign in the current context.
Advance-Decline Lines: S&P 500 and NYSE showing improvement, with NYSE generating a golden cross and new ATH, indicating a positive trend.
Large vs. Small Caps: Large caps (Russell 1000) outperforming small caps (Russell 2000), with no significant trend change.
High-Low Momentum: S&P 10-day high-low average is declining, suggesting a potential longer-term slowdown in momentum. It has not caught up with recent SPX advances.
Growth vs. Value: Growth stocks (e.g., tech) outperforming defensive sectors (e.g., utilities, staples), supporting a bullish market.
Bellwethers: Semiconductors are strengthening, while home builders, transports, retail, and regional banks showing mixed performance but are improving.
US vs. International: US stocks are stabilizing relative to international markets after underperforming earlier in 2025.
Inflation Concerns: Ratios such as cash vs. bonds and TIPS vs. bonds suggest the market is not currently worried about inflation.
Yield Curve: The 10-year to 2-year spread is positive (normal), but the 10-year to 3-month spread is near inversion, warranting attention.
Technical Indicators: Rainbow charts, Ichimoku cloud, and other moving average studies show positive short- and intermediate-term trends, with long-term trends recovering.
Overall, the market appears positive, driven by growth stocks and declining volatility, with no immediate inflation concerns. However, some indicators (e.g., small caps, retail) lack strong momentum, suggesting caution and the need to monitor for potential pullbacks or geopolitical impacts.

PDF of Slides:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1R4yils1fYF63rWnaA3RXGFdQOmM105hz/view?usp=sharing

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!