Daily Update Podcast for Tuesday July 1, 2025

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Market Summary for Monday, June 30, 2025
Outlook for Tuesday, July 1, 2025
Market Performance:
Major Indices: The S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100 set new all-time highs, with the S&P 500 closing above 6,200, up 0.52%, matching Friday’s gain. Volume was slightly above average but lower than Friday.
Market Trends: Growth stocks outperformed value stocks. The market is positive across all timeframes, with the SPY ETF nearing a golden cross (50-day moving average crossing above the 200-day). The ADX on the weekly chart is close to signaling a positive trend.
Second Quarter Recap: Despite an intraday drop of over 21% (under 20% on a closing basis), the market recovered, setting new highs by Friday and Monday.
Key Market Drivers:
Apple’s AI News: Apple’s announcement about using external AI for Siri boosted the S&P and NASDAQ 100 late in the session.
Senate Bill: A procedural vote passed to extend the 2017 tax cuts, introduce Medicaid work requirements (starting Dec 2026), phase out solar/wind tax credits, raise the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 for five years for incomes under $500,000, and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. The Congressional Budget Office estimates a $3 trillion deficit increase over a decade. The bill awaits full Senate and House approval, with a potential signing by President Trump on July 4.
Trade News: Canada dropped its digital services tax, signaling renewed U.S. trade negotiations, with possible EU deals on the horizon, viewed positively by markets.
Bank Stress Tests: Post-2008 crisis stress tests showed banks are resilient, supporting market confidence.
Interest Rates: The 10-year yield fell to 4.23% from 4.28%, supporting equities. The dollar weakened, potentially aiding stocks but nearing oversold levels.
Economic Data: Chicago PMI was weaker than expected at 40.4 (vs. 43.4 forecast), indicating manufacturing softness.
Technical Indicators:
Short-Term: Momentum indicators (StochRSI, CCI, Stochastics) are extremely positive but suggest overbought conditions. The S&P closed above the R1 pivot (6,196) and 6,200, a psychological level.
Intermediate-Term: Positive trends with the balance of power, go-no-go indicators, and McClellan Oscillator above zero. The market is at the high end of the +3 standard deviation channel.
Long-Term: Mixed signals—TTM Squeeze on a monthly chart remains negative, but 150/200-day moving average studies are positive.
Advance-Decline Lines: New all-time highs based on price and volume, with volume leading, a bullish sign. However, only 56.6% of S&P stocks are above their 200-day moving average, indicating limited participation.
Sentiment: Rose to 67 from 65, nearing the 70-75 threshold for caution. Insider buying weakened, suggesting bearish sentiment.
Sector Performance:
Leaders: Technology (driven by Apple) and communication services (Meta, Netflix) performed strongly. Financials improved post-stress test results.
Laggards: Discretionary (Amazon, Tesla down), energy, materials, and small/mid-caps underperformed. Staples and utilities showed weakness, a positive for risk-on sentiment.
Market Outlook for Tuesday, July 1:
Seasonality: July 1 has strong positive seasonality, marking the start of Q3. Historically, July is up 59% of the time since 1950, with the first half being one of the best-performing periods. Seasonally, a dip may occur around July 4, followed by strength.
Economic Calendar: Key reports include construction spending, ISM manufacturing, global manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS job openings. Fed Chair Powell’s speech could influence markets.
Geopolitical Factors: Potential market movers include reactions to the Senate bill, Middle East developments, or other global tensions (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, India-Pakistan).
Technical Levels: Watch the 6,200 level for support/resistance, with July pivot points now in focus. Overbought short-term indicators suggest caution, but the trend remains positive.
Risks: High valuations (S&P P/E at 22, tech at 29), a negative long-term TTM Squeeze, and potential dollar rebound could pressure stocks. Limited S&P stock participation is a concern.
Conclusion: The market is in a developing uptrend, supported by positive seasonality, technicals, and macro developments such as lower interest rates and trade optimism. However, overbought conditions, high valuations, and geopolitical risks warrant caution. Tuesday’s economic data and Powell’s speech will be critical.

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!