What Drives Homicide Trends?

Homicides surged across the U.S. in 2020 and 2021. But what caused the spike—and why were certain cities and demographic groups hit the hardest? In this episode, Manhattan Institute fellow Robert VerBruggen explores the complex trends behind America's recent wave of violence. Drawing on a wide range of data—from the FBI, CDC, and AH Datalytics.
He reveals that the homicide increases were most severe in places and among populations that already had high rates of violence, though factors like policing, unemployment, and social disruption also played a role. The episode highlights striking case studies, including Portland’s dramatic and continued rise in homicides following cuts to police funding.
Understanding these dynamics is essential for policymakers seeking to prevent future crime spikes—especially during periods of social upheaval. Tune in for a data-driven look at where and why murder rates rose, how cities responded, and what we can learn for the future.
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