Daily Update Podcast for Thursday July 3, 2025

Link to The SPX Investing Program https://spxinvesting.substack.com

Link to The Daily Pivot Newsletter: https://thedailypivotnewsletter.substack.com/

Join to get access to perks:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCxlaGAKm2ApEs13O1gWDltg/join

Market Summary for Wednesday, July 2, 2025
Outlook for Thursday July 3, 2025
Market Performance: The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, up 0.47%, closing just below the R2 pivot at 6228 after climbing above the daily pivot (6196) and R1 (6213). Volume remained above average, indicating conviction. The NASDAQ and NASDAQ 100 also saw gains, with growth stocks outperforming value after a brief defensive shift on Tuesday.
Technical Indicators: Positive short-, intermediate-, and long-term trends with recent golden crosses in the S&P 500, NASDAQ, and NASDAQ 100. Short-term indicators (Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, CCI, Stochastics) show strong momentum but are nearing overextended levels. Intermediate-term indicators (e.g., RSI, CMB composite) are positive but extreme in some cases. Long-term oscillators are improving but not yet extreme.
Economic Data: ADP employment change was negative at -33,000 jobs (vs. expected +97,000), the first negative print since March 2023. Mortgage applications rose 2.7%. Markets largely ignored the weak ADP data, focusing on the upcoming employment report on Thursday.
Sector Performance: Mega caps, small caps, and mid-caps outperformed, with tech leading. Small caps (S&P 600, Russell 2000) and mid-caps are above their 200-day moving averages. Energy saw a bounce, while healthcare, utilities, and financials lagged slightly.
Political Developments: The "Big Beautiful Bill" remains under debate in the House, with some Republican dissent over costs. Consensus leans toward passage, though not necessarily by July 4. A trade deal with Vietnam was announced, featuring zero tariffs for U.S. access.
Market Sentiment: Sentiment slightly down despite the up day, possibly due to pre-holiday hedging. The VIX remains low, indicating reduced volatility. Risk-on sentiment is evident with rising high-beta-to-low-beta ratios.
Geopolitical Context: Concerns about potential escalations (e.g., Israel-Iran, Russia-Ukraine) over the holiday weekend, though hopes remain for a calm celebration.
Outlook for Thursday, July 3, 2025:
Market Hours: Early close at 1 p.m. Eastern due to the Independence Day holiday (markets closed Friday).
Key Events: Major economic reports (initial/continuing jobless claims, employment report, ISM non-manufacturing, factory orders) will influence trading. Markets are positive across all timeframes, but extreme readings in some indicators suggest caution.
Seasonal Trends: Historically, early July is strong, especially for the NASDAQ. Post-election years show strength in the third quarter (average 10.7% return). However, slight weakness is typical around July 4, with strength resuming until mid-month.
Risks: Potential geopolitical developments and market reactions to the "Big Beautiful Bill" and employment data could drive volatility.
Conclusion: The market remains bullish, supported by technical strength and growth stock leadership, but overextended indicators and upcoming economic data warrant attention.

Enjoy a safe Independence Day!

DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!