S&P 500 Daily Update for Wednesday July 9, 2025

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Market Summary for Tuesday, July 8, 2025:
Outlook for Wednesday July 10, 2025:
S&P 500 Performance: The SPX experienced a lackluster day with minimal movement, consolidating in a tight range. It closed slightly down by 0.07%, below the daily pivot of 6231, with below-average volume. Despite the flat session, the market remains positive across all time frames, staying above the 20-period moving average, indicating a short-term bullish trend.
Market Indicators: The ADX trend indicator suggests a positive trend, but momentum is stalling. Overbought conditions are easing slightly, with some indicators such as the Stochastics and Williams %R showing extreme readings, while others like the TTM Squeeze are newly added to the overbought list. Momentum oscillators are mixed, with some showing improvement.
Economic and Policy Developments:
Trade and tariff news, including President Trump extending the July 9 trade deadline and Commerce Secretary Lutnick’s comments on EU offers, had little market impact, treated as noise.
An executive order eliminated green energy subsidies, and potential 20% tariffs on pharmaceuticals were announced, but the market remained unresponsive.
Interest rates rose, with the 10-year yield at 4.42%, nearing the critical 4.5% level. The dollar saw a rebound, potentially pressuring stocks.
Sector and Asset Performance:
Small and mid-cap stocks outperformed, while mega-cap growth and tech underperformed. Semiconductors recovered most of Monday’s losses.
Bonds are negative across all time frames, commodities are positive, and the dollar remains negative long-term despite a recent bounce.
Energy and materials sectors saw gains, while healthcare bounced slightly, and staples and communication stocks dipped.
Key Metrics and Ratios:
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index slightly declined to 98.6 from 98.8. Consumer credit growth slowed to $5.1 billion from $16.9 billion.
Growth-to-value ratios remain positive, with discretionary-to-staples improving and nearing a golden cross. High-beta-to-low-beta and risk-on-to-risk-off ratios are positive.
The weekly overbought/oversold composite is at 85, a high but not extreme reading, suggesting potential for either a breakout or reversal.
Technical Outlook: The market is positive but showing signs of slowing momentum. Key support levels include the 200-day moving average for small caps and the long-term trend line for the NASDAQ 100, which may be acting as resistance. The VIX remains stable, and fear gauges ticked up slightly, indicating minor hedging activity.
Upcoming Events for Wednesday, July 9, 2025:
Key economic releases include MBA Mortgage Applications Index, wholesale inventories, and Fed meeting minutes, which may provide a catalyst if significant.
Initial jobless claims and a 10-year note auction could influence markets on Thursday.
Geopolitical issues (e.g., Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran) remain in the background but are not currently driving market action.
Seasonality: Positive seasonality is noted for early July, historically a strong period for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, which could support further gains.
Conclusion: The SPX remains positive across all time frames with a recent long-term golden cross, but Tuesday’s session lacked conviction. Internal buying and positive seasonality provide optimism, though rising interest rates, a stronger dollar, and mixed technical signals warrant caution.

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DISCLAIMER This video is for entertainment purposes only. I am not a financial adviser, and you should do your own research and go through your own thought process before investing in a position. Trading is risky!